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Playing GM in a booming NIL market
How much is the NIL market spike? Some elite programs are busy weighing their next moves. Plus: Top programs cash in on retention, the Big East surges, latest portal activity and what’s next with the transfer portal.
Samuel Lance
April 16, 2026
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1. So much for that slowing NIL market …
Last week in The Daily, we discussed the NIL prices big men could command, with tags hitting the $4-5 million range. That type of money has already been spent this offseason, and it’s likely to continue as we move deeper into the cycle.
But how much has the NIL market increased from last year? It’s far more than last season’s booming portal cycle. Like 65% more.
“The NIL market for Division 1 players is up about 65% from last year. That means a player good enough to be valued at $1 million last offseason would be getting around $1.65 million this offseason.”
“The market is up even higher for players coming from high-major programs: There has been a 73% increase in the going rate for players on power conference teams. The market increase for players from low- and mid-major conferences is slightly lower, up 44% from last offseason.”
“To obtain a center or a point guard who are equivalent in talent level, it would cost $1.3 million for the center, while only $813,000 for the point guard. That means, in this market, it costs 61% more NIL dollars to get a center of the same caliber as a point guard.”
“With more teams trying to load up on long, athletic frontcourts, my current working theory is that teams who stock up on value at other positions could end up with more talented rosters.”
This is the first recruiting cycle with the House vs. NCAA settlement in place, which was meant to stabilize to market. Instead, we’re seeing even more chaos than ever before.
2. BYU, Illinois, Florida all celebrated Wednesday
It was a battle to keep Rob Wright in Provo, but after the point guard visited Lexington to start the week, he ultimately decided to return to BYU.
The school officially announced his resigning on Wednesday.
Coach Kevin Young now has Wright, portal commits Collin Chandler (Kentucky), Tyler Betsey (Syracuse) and Jake Wahlin (Clemson), high school commits Bruce Branch III (5-star SG/SF), Dean Rueckert (top-80 SF) and Will Openshaw (unranked PF) to build from. Not a bad foundation.
Illinois coach Brad Underwood also must be smiling after a huge day of retention, as David Mirkovic, Jake Davis, and the Ivisic twins all announced they’ll be back. Andrej Stojakovic’s status is the next domino to determine what Underwood searches for in the portal.
Meanwhile, Florida must have felt the same way with All-American big man Alex Condon announcing his return on Wednesday. The Gators are still awaiting decisions from Rueben Chinyelu, Thomas Haugh, CJ Ingram and Viktor Mikic.
But Boogie Fland, Urban Klavzar, Isaiah Brown, Alex Lloyd, Alex Kovatchev and AJ Brown are all returning, and only Olivier Rioux has hit the portal. If Denzel Aberdeen gets an extra year of eligibility and Chinyelu comes back, Florida will be in a similar place for contention as it was this season.
3. What could be next for top programs?
We’ve hit the portion of the offseason where dominoes have fallen and most players have either decided to stay at their respective schools or enter the transfer portal.
Programs have now entered full roster-building mode.
With that, today we’re going to play general manager and discuss what some of the top programs might do to complete their rosters. Below, each team will have a brief overview of its roster outlook, followed by a projected lineup, and then a brief analysis of what could come next. Let’s dive in!
Kentucky
Leaving: Otega Oweh (grad), Denzel Aberdeen (Florida), Collin Chandler (BYU), Jaland Lowe (Georgetown), Andrija Jelavic (Ohio State), Brandon Garrison (Alabama), Mo Dioubate (portal), Jasper Johnson (portal).
Staying: Malachi Moreno, Kam Williams, Trent Noah, Reece Potter.
Undecided: Brayden Hawthorne.
Incoming: Zoom Diallo (Washington), Mason Williams (4-star PG).
PG: Diallo, M. Williams
SG: ??, Noah
SF: Tyran Stokes??, ??
PF: K. Williams, Hawthorne??
C: Moreno, Potter
Analysis: Kentucky missed out on Rob Wright, but it quickly pivoted and added Diallo on Wednesday. The next domino will be whether Pope can land No. 1 overall recruit Tyran Stokes. With him, the Wildcats will likely look for a scoring guard, a bench ball handler and perhaps another frontcourt piece. Without the 5-star freshman, Kentucky has a lot of work to do.
