The Consensus Way Too Early Top 25

When you take the top 11 college hoops sites and their rankings, who's the (early) team to beat in 2023-24? Plus, news from the transfer portal, another Edey award and a minor rant.

Author

Mike Miller
April 05, 2023

Only 215 days until the 2023-24 college basketball season begins. Plenty of time for transfer portal activity, roster changes, and a billion Way Too Early Top 25 revisions.

So let's get to it.

1. The (possible?) wisdom of crowds

Why have one Way Too Early Top 25 when you can spotlight 11 of them, all from the best college hoops coverage out there?

Go ahead. Stare at this graphic for 10-15 minutes. You won't regret it.

It's interesting to see some of the outliers, such as:

  • Kentucky wasn't ranked by 247. They're also much higher on Texas than anyone else.

  • Four sites didn't rank San Diego State.

  • Bart Torvik is ALL IN on Arizona.

  • ESPN is low on UCLA.

  • Heat Check still believes in the Zags.

Anyway, the average ranking has Marquette as the consensus No. 1 — for now — entering 2023-24, followed by UConn, Duke, Purdue and Creighton in the top five.

Michigan State, Kansas and Houston (same average), FAU and Miami round out the average top 10.

From there it's the following: Kentucky, Bama, Arizona, UCLA, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Baylor, Saint Mary's and Tennessee from 11-20, and San Diego State, USC, Texas, UNC and Colorado round out the top 25.

Was this a mostly useless exercise since these will change significantly once the portal closes in mid-May and when a host of players return to school in June? Sure. But it'll be fun to see how the early expectations shake out.

2. Latest on transfer portal activity

The transfer portal has been open for just over three weeks. Per Verbal Commits, more than 1,200 players have entered their names, with about five weeks remaining until it closes on May 11.

Not all of them are scholarship players. According to On3.com, 966 are on scholarship — about 20 percent of all the D-I scholarship players. If you include players who've used up their eligibility, the average roster turnover is more than 30 percent by now. That's more players in the portal than a year ago at this time, and many of them won't be eligible for the one-year waiver exemption.

All of which is to say, it's a lot to take in.

Among the notable entrants on Tuesday? Stanford forward Harrison Ingram.

Ingram, a former McDonald's All-American and the Pac-12 rookie of the year in 2021-22, averaged 10.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists last season. His development stalled as a sophomore, but the talent is there. The 6-7, 230-pound wing just needs to find the right fit. He'll be a highly sought-after player, too, and should be considered one of the top 10 players in the portal.

Aaron Estrada doesn't have the recruiting hype of Ingram, but he could be just as impactful. The 6-3, 195-pound pint guard from Hofstra is a two-time CAA POY who averaged 20.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists last season in leading the Pride to the CAA regular-season title. As Terrence Oglesby says, he's a BUCKET, able to create for himself and others. Any place that needs a lead guard should be pursuing Estrada.

Other notable transfer portal entrants:

  • Oklahoma State guard Avery Anderson

  • Alabama guard Jaden Bradley

  • UMass wing RJ Luis

  • Gonzaga center Efton Reid

New schools for these players:

3. Zach Edey's monster season

This was announced the night of the NCAA Championship game (how about a day earlier? Or the Friday before?), so it only started to get real attention on Tuesday. But it wasn't a surprise, either.

So, let's recap Edey's junior season:

  • He led Purdue, unranked to start the year, to the No. 1 ranking for seven different weeks, tied with Houston for the most this season.

  • His individual production took a massive leap. His scoring average (22.3 ppg) nearly doubled, while he posted career highs in rebounds (12.9 per game), assists (1.5 per game) and blocks (2.1 per game), all while going from 19 minutes per game to 31.7 minutes.

  • As a result, he was a consensus first-team All-American, the Big Ten POY of the year and won pretty much every award possible, including the Wooden, AP, Oscar Robertson, NABC, Sporting News, Pete Newell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and the Field of 68 POY.

All this from a guy who just started playing basketball six years ago and wasn't even a starter last season. It's still unclear if he will enter the NBA Draft.

Here's hoping he comes back another season.

4. Who'd UConn beat, anyway? (Who cares?)

I'm not sure when it started, but the path of the eventual NCAA Tournament champion has been a talking point for the past few years (I'm looking at you, @gwizzy12).

So JG Trends, as it does, captured that in a snazzy graph.

Sure enough, the teams UConn and Kansas beat en route to the last two titles don't quite measure up to previous champs. Crazy, right? It's almost like THAT'S WHAT A SINGLE-ELIMINATION TOURNAMENT WOULD BE! A series of random opponents that AREN'T PREDETERMINED TO PROVIDE THE TOUGHEST TEST POSSIBLE!

Sorry, I'm yelling. Gonna take a breath.

I don't understand this talking point. Sure, it's fun for bars, podcasts — and definitely for Twitter — but it's so stupid. That's the singular brilliance of the Big Dance. It's simultaneously the greatest and stupidest way to determine a champion because anything can happen, including upsets that might KO more accomplished/better teams along the way.

If a team doesn't play the best possible seed before winning it all, it doesn't matter. There aren't asterisks for "easy" wins or a sub-par field. They still give you the trophy and everything! It's like that old joke: What do they call someone who graduates last in med school? Doctor.

Know what they call the team that wins the NCAA Tournament but has to play a 16, 9, 12, 6, 4 and 7 seed along the way? Champion. Casual fans don't care. Even die-hards don't always remember the path their teams faced along the way. And we certainly didn't raise stuff like this when UCLA captured 11 of 13 titles by only winning four games and playing the first two in LA. We just call them a dynasty and move on with our lives.

Which is what I'm gonna do now.

5. San Diego State has the nicest fans

Here's a storyline more my speed today. Check the comments on this post from @Aztec_MBB.

Normally, you'd catch a lot of angry Twitter replies or gamblers pissed about losses. But this one is a series of happy, grateful San Diego State fans telling their team how proud they are of them and what they did for the school and San Diego. A sampling:

  • San Diego is proud of you guys. Played hard. Be proud of what you did for the city & the excitement you brought. Get back to work & use this to get stronger.

  • Nobody was gonna stop UConn this year. No reason to hang your heads. Best season in program history

  • Be proud! One heck of a season, and nothing to be ashamed of! This one was for the record books!

  • Thank you for an amazing ride. You were the biggest bright spot in Division 1 college basketball in Southern California this season. Regardless of whether you won or lost, you represented SoCal, and all of CA, really well in this tournament. Congratulations on an amazing season.

  • I can’t express how proud I am of this team. Nothing but thanks and gratitude for a fun ride this season. The future is nothing but bright for @Aztec_MBB #Ibelieve #Aztecs #SDSU #SanDiego

It's legitimately one of the rare times when scrolling through replies can fill a person's soul with warmth and make you optimistic about basic human decency.

I'm sure Twitter will ruin it somehow...

About Tristen Newton

The scouting report for UConn: Attack Tristen Newton. The senior was seen as the Huskies' weak spot, a turnover-prone point guard who could struggle against elite defenses. Welp. That turned out to be wrong. The AFTER DARK crew (mostly Rob Dauster) explains.

Links for all those who will celebrate Passover tonight.

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