'Sleeping on Villanova'

It's wild to think we're entering a season where 'Nova's loaded with talent and isn't viewed as a Top 10 team. What's behind that? Plus, loads of recruiting news from the weekend, and get ready to dive into some stats.

Author

Mike Miller
October 16, 2023

Midnight Madness isn’t really a thing anymore, which, depending on your point of view, is either good or bad. Good in that old folks like me can get to sleep before midnight, but bad in that some of the events lose their luster.

Michigan State is not one of those events. Not when Tom Izzo is still dressing up or when fans embrace a Friday the 13th theme. And certainly not when Coer Carr does things like this.

I don’t know how much playing time Carr gets this season given the Spartans’ depth. We may have to wait until next season for never-ending alley-oops from Jeremy Fears to Carr for the best highlights. But maybe some Spartan fan can create an alert for me anytime he’s on the floor. Because I don’t want to miss feats like this. My word.

Let's dive into Monday’s Daily.

1. Is Villanova being underrated?

Following a coaching legend is rarely a smooth transition. For all its institutional success and support, Villanova was no different in 2022-23 when it moved from Hall of Famer Jay Wright to Kyle Neptune.

It’s not that the Wildcats were bad, especially when one considers injuries to Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. It’s just that they weren’t their usual spectacular selves from the 2010s. Finishing 17-17 overall and winning 10 conference games is fine for most programs. But for Villanova? A program with 2 nattys in the last eight seasons? That doesn’t cut it.

So Neptune did what any smart coach in 2023 would do. He hit the portal to supplement an already solid roster. Now the Wildcats’ top 5 should be able to play with anyone, and their depth and experience has a certain hint of a more familiar Villanova.

The Wildcats are slated as the fourth best team in the Big East, and should end up in the Top 25. Yet … is ‘Nova actually underrated? Has one season disrupted what people expect of the the ‘Cats?

I think it’s as good as it’s been in terms of the depth of the talent since I’ve been in the league. You’ve got three potential top-10 teams with what we return plus Marquette and UConn. That’s not including Villanova, who has seven seniors. And teams with seven seniors — in a system like that — are usually pretty good. I think people are really sleeping on how good Villanova is going to be.

Greg McDermott, Creighton coach

OK, more context is needed. For that, I’m turning to The Almanac, which has a comprehensive look at the roster Neptune assembled:

It starts with Justin Moore and Eric Dixon, who are the two most notable holdovers from last year’s roster. Moore spent the first half of last season recovering from a torn Achilles and the second half of last season playing like a guy that was recovering from a torn Achilles.

...

Not only can Dixon exploit switches in the post and defend guards on the perimeter, he was arguably Villanova’s most dangerous shooter last year — there were multiple times when Neptune ran a set to get Dixon, a 250-pound center, running off of a pindown for a 3. If Moore is, in fact, back to full strength, he and Dixon could very well combine to be the best 1-2 punch in the Big East this season.

And they are surrounded by quality role players.

Washington State transfer T.J. Bamba is a 6-5 scorer with an appealing mix of off-the-dribble shot creation and catch-and-shoot ability. Already 22 years old, he’s athletic enough to guard and profiles as a perfect complimentary piece in Villanova’s offense. He’ll likely be joined on Villanova’s perimeter by a pair of big wings in Richmond transfer Tyler Burton (6-7) and Maryland transfer — and Philly native — Hakim Hart (6-8).

It’s tough to sleep on those seniors — Moore, Bamba, Dixon, Hart, Burton, Kentucky transfer Lance Ware and Chris Arcidiacono — but McDermott’s point is well taken. When Marquette, Creighton and UConn are seen as national title contenders and likely Top 10 preseason teams, it’s easy to dismiss Villanova.

Yet from a talent standpoint, the ‘Cats have just as much potential as any other Big East team, and are a clear step ahead of the league’s other NCAA Tournament contenders, St. John’s, Providence and Xavier.

So why aren’t they lumped in with those elite three? Two words: Kyle Neptune.

Neptune knew replacing Wright wouldn’t be easy. To his credit, he didn’t dwell on Moore’s absence last season, or try to make excuses. He simply tried to stay focused on regular, consistent improvement. But this is Villanova. As Rob Dauster and John Fanta noted this summer, this will be the year when most decide if Neptune is the right guy for the job.

He’s got the pieces. Can they fit together?

2. Even with 4 new schools, Big 12 remains a gauntlet

Big 12 coaches didn’t have any surprises in Friday’s preseason poll.

Kansas was the overwhelming favorite to win the league (all but two coaches voted for the Jayhawks), followed by league newcomer Houston, then Texas and Baylor. You’ll find the exact same order in The Almanac’s predicted order of finish.

After that, the coaches had moderate differences (the coaches’ faith in TCU and West Virginia are the most striking), but nothing overwhelming. So let’s focus on a more interesting angle: With four new teams, will the Big 12 still be the most challenging conference in college hoops?

The numbers say yes.

In the new Kenpom.com ratings that dropped over the weekend (more on that in a bit), the Big 12 is projected as the top league, ahead of the SEC, Big Ten, Big East, Pac-12 and ACC. Every Big 12 team is ranked 72nd or higher. (The SEC is close; Vandy and Ole Miss are 79 and 82, respectively.)

For that matter, even though conference play will be a gauntlet (again), most Big 12 teams don’t have a non-conference schedule will with pushovers.

Coincidently, Oklahoma and Iowa State play each other in their Big 12 openers.

Last season, TCU and Texas Tech both played at least four games against 300+ teams, and had among the weakest non-conference ratings among power conference teams. It’s one of the things that derailed the Red Raiders’ NCAA tourney chances.

That’ll be something to monitor once February rolls around and Big 12 teams are building NCAA Tournament profiles. They might be in the top league, but will the seeding committee think twice about a program with too many buy games from its non-con?

3. Spend the day staring at stats

My Twitter/X feed on Sunday afternoon flipped from NFL talk to college basketball, which is a rare occurrence. There was a simple explanation.

Yep. Kenpom’s ratings for the 2023-24 season are out. You’ll certainly see lots of references in your feed throughout the day, but it IS Monday, so you’re probably catching up on everything you put off on Friday, and other back-to-work items.

Tell you what. I’ll dive into the new ratings today, and devote much of Tuesday’s Daily to a statistical overview for 2023-24. (Provided I can get my own to-do list done…)

4. Hoosiers catch a shooting star

Over the summer, Indiana scored a big recruiting win by landing 5-star MacKenzie Mgbako, a forward who can stretch the floor and should create space for the rest of their bigs.

Sunday, the Hoosiers did it again.

Liam McNeeley, a 6-7 small forward out of Montverde Academy, chose Indiana over Kansas. He’s one of the top shooters in the class of 2024, and that’s not just as a spot-up shooter. He’ll make shots of the dribble, is a good cutter, and finish in traffic. In short, he’s the type of offensive player every team wants.

It’s an impressive win for Mike Woodson’s Indiana staff. Now they just have to fill out the rest of the 2024 freshman class.

5. And more recruiting news

McNeeley was the highest-rated recruit who committed over the weekend, but was far from the only notable move. Here’s a rundown:

  • Michigan State fans will cheer for a familiar name next season. Jase Richardson, the son of ex-Spartans star Jason Richardson, committed to Tom Izzo’s program on Sunday. His dad played in three Final Fours and helped Izzo win his only national title. The 6-3 guard is viewed as a 4-star prospect and is their third commit in the class of 2024.

  • San Diego State landed its first top-100 recruit since 2015 with 4-star prospect Pharaoh Compton. The 6-7 forward from Las Vegas chose the Aztecs over Iowa.

  • Andrew Crawford, a 4-star prospect and the No. 1 player in the state of Colorado, will stay home in 2024. The 6-7 wing is a heady player who is a superb passer and excellent team defender who’ll be an asset for Tad Boyle.

  • USC also kept a local talent, earning a commitment from Trent Parry, ranked 55th in the 247 Sports composite. The 6-4 point guard has good positional size and well-rounded game. He’ll certainly have a chance to compete for starting spot.

  • Houston added its second recruit in the class of 2024 in 6-6 small forward Chase McCarty. The top-75 prospect chose the Cougars over Georgia Tech, Kansas, Tennessee and Texas Tech.

Beyond those Top 100 prospects, even more 2024 prospects committed:

Making the case for a bigger Big Dance

Forget NIL or the transfer window. The most polarizing topic in college hoops is NCAA Tournament expansion. Most people like the idea of going beyond 68 teams like they like a root canal. But there are those who can make persuasive cases for why expansion is actually a good thing, especially if you’re a fan of upsets and under-the-radar teams in March. Summit League Commissioner Josh Fenton did just that last week with The Field of 68.

Links as you check if you can still see The Eras Tour movie.

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