UCLA's championship formula

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Showy? Nah. But is UCLA built to win in March? Yeah.

If you’re a UCLA fan, college basketball fan, casual observer, or total normie, raise your hand if you thought Mick Cronin would be this good this quickly at UCLA.

(counts)

A grand total of zero raised hands? Might have missed one in the back.

Cronin, 51, was objectively excellent in three years at Murray State, then another 13 seasons at Cincinnati. His 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, seven seasons with at least 26 wins, and seven regular-season or conference tourney titles, but the lack of any deep NCAA Tournament run seemed to work against him in how he was judged as a coach. It’s natural; if you don’t have that big moment on a big stage, you sort of get forgotten.

Yet ... all Cronin’s done since arriving at UCLA is win. The Bruins probably would’ve made the 2020 COVID Tournament, went to the Final Four in 2021 as a First Four entrant, and made the Sweet 16 last year after spending the entire season inside the AP top 20. Most of this season, they've somehow managed fly under the radar. UCLA sits 4th in the AP Poll, No. 2 on KenPom, and No. 4 on Bart Torvik’s site. Writers and computers are impressed.

They’re also fourth in Wins Above Bubble, which is a useful tool for gauging a team’s resume versus how an average team would’ve performed. All four losses have come against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament, all losses away from home. There's a real argument that their resume is superior to Purdue’s, the team currently seen as the final 1-seed. You don’t get all these accolades by accident.

So why — until the last couple of weeks when they became everyone’s favorite “they’re my pick” pick — was UCLA being overlooked? Well, UCLA doesn’t have a signature win (the best being either Maryland or Kentucky). Its offense is good, but isn’t elite, ranking 22nd on KenPom, and they rank 101st in points per game with 73.9. Their two stars, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell, have played for UCLA for what feels like eight years each. True to Cronin’s style, they’re defiantly unsexy.

But they win. And they win a lot, even in a pretty mediocre Pac-12. While their strength of schedule figures to be scrutinized, it ranks out as a better SOS than that of Houston and UConn, two fellow top 5 KenPom teams. To go with all of that, they’re first nationally in turnover margin and second in combined turnover + rebound margin per 100 possessions behind Houston. Is it beautiful? Not really. Is it working? Without question.

So: what makes this UCLA team tick? How have teams like UCLA performed in March? And what can we expect from a conference that could potentially place only two teams in the Big Dance? All of that and more uncovered below.

UCLA’s specialties: elite defense, elite shot volume

It sort of goes without saying at this point, but the most efficient defense in America is Tennessee and it’s fair to presume it’ll stay that way to Selection Sunday. Before clicking on this, did you know that UCLA is second and is the only other team with a sub-90 Adjusted Defensive Rating? It’s true. Along with that, as previously mentioned, this is the No. 1 team nationally in turnover margin (32nd in offensive TO%, seventh in defensive TO%) and a top-20 offensive rebounding team.

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