It's come to this

Months of workouts, practices, games — and for those of us who cover the sport, typing, orating and tweeting — culminate tonight. On the sport's biggest stage, in NRG stadium, we will watch a new team claim the crown. (Enjoy your day, Kansas fans; that title of "reigning champs" will only last a few more hours. Yes, I'm slightly bitter.)

And a special shoutout to the Field of 68 gang in Houston. You can watch all of the on-site coverage here. And don't miss their postgame show tonight after it all ends! Watch on YouTube or Twitter.

Let's get to the news.

1. The last Monday

"We want to be one of the teams playing on the last Monday of the season."

The cliché uttered by most coaches in November represents the end of the marathon. And now, we've arrived at the finish line, with San Diego State and UConn as the lone competitors remaining.

In case you missed the recaps of the semifinals, you can read Mike Miller's excellent work here. Because today's Daily is all about tonight.

So what's at stake for these two programs?

For UConn, it seeks its fifth national championship in its sixth Final Four appearance (talk about making the most of your opportunities.) A win would serve as the apex of Dan Hurley's masterful rebuild after the program missed four tournaments in the six years before his arrival.

It would also further validate Hurley as a talent evaluator. This roster isn't comprised of McDonald's All-Americans and big-name transfers. Instead, four of the five starters ranked in the 50 to 100 range coming out of high school and have developed under Hurley's tutelage. (Freshman Donovan Clingan also fits that description.)

San Diego State, playing in its first title game, bears a resemblance. Most notably, the Aztecs have never landed a 5-star recruit — not even Kawhi Leonard. Heat Check CBB's Eli Boettger chronicled this and more in his terrific profile on SDSU's rise out of irrelevance and into prominence in the 2010s.

Perhaps the article's most illuminating quote came from point guard Darrion Trammell: "It’s a mid-major program but, at the same time, it has a high-major feel to it. They’re going to go to the tournament pretty much every year. We’re getting the high-major feel, but it’s still a mid-major where politics don’t play as much into it."

That "high-major feel" won't go away anytime soon. But if San Diego State captures a victory tonight, it would be the first non-Power 5/Big East team to win a national championship since UNLV in 1990.

To do that, it must capitalize on a few key matchups. Let's dive into those.

2. Goliath vs. Goliath

So we covered this: San Diego State isn't a prominent brand name. It plays in the Mountain West, a league that casual fans view as a mid-major conference. And it will face a program with four national championships on its résumé.

But don't mistake tonight's bout as a David vs. Goliath matchup ... mainly because San Diego State boasts size more akin to the Philistine champion than the shepherd boy out of Bethlehem.

The Aztecs rank just 241st nationally in average height, but that doesn't tell the whole story. They have bulk, too. Consider this: Of San Diego State's top nine, six check in at 200 pounds or more, with four weighing 220-plus.

This advantage sticks out most notably in the frontcourt, where Nathan Mensah shines as the tournament's premiere rim protector. Throughout the Big Dance, the Aztecs' opponents have made just 48.1 percent of their shots at the rim, thanks to Mensah's blend of strength, physicality and defensive instincts.

Conversely, UConn has made 69 percent of its shots at the rim in its five tourney games. Adama Sanogo, Mensah's most imposing foe yet, has played a massive role. His offensive rebounding leads to easy buckets, and he produces an automatic two points when he gets a good seal.

The Malian big man has averaged 20.2 points, 9.8 boards, 1.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks in the tourney. If San Diego State wants any chance at the upset, it starts with Mensah containing Sanogo. His second-half performance against Ryan Kalkbrenner tells us it's possible — but it's far from guaranteed.

Plus, it's not like Sanogo is UConn's only frontcourt option. When he heads to the bench, a mammoth freshman walks up to the scorer's table.

Donovan Clingan has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the tournament, most notably on defense. While he only scored four points against Miami in the Final Four, his presence deterred the Canes from pressuring the rim (note their 15 missed layups.) Plus, he's an even more ferocious rebounder than Sanogo — his 20.1 offensive rebounding rate and 29.6 defensive rebounding rate would both rank top-6 in the country, had he played enough minutes to qualify.

Now, San Diego State is one of the few teams in the sport that can counter Clingan with a similarly productive bench big. Jaedon LeDee has emerged as the Aztecs' X-factor. Like Mensah, he crashes the offensive glass and locks down the interior. But he also gives San Diego State a different look on offense than Mensah with his ability to attack from the top of the key and create in the high post.

If the Aztecs can get 10-plus points from LeDee (he scored 12 vs. FAU), their chances of cutting down the nets increase significantly...

3. On your guard

...But even with a battle looming along the frontlines, it's still a guard's game.

UConn deploys two versatile threats in point forward Andre Jackson and 6-5 floor general Tristen Newton. Both players have posted an assist rate of 26 or higher, one of just 10 pairs of teammates to do so. Their passing abilities have completely unlocked the offense, which ranks third in the country — UConn's highest mark in the KenPom era.

Newton, in particular, has elevated his facilitation skills; the senior has averaged six dimes per game since February, up from four per contest through the season's first two months.

But San Diego State excels at forcing its opponents into stagnation; the Aztecs place in the top 75 nationally in defensive assist rate.

Part of that success stems from Mensah's rim protection — it's tough to log assists when you can't score at the basket. But just as important is SDSU's tight pressure on the perimeter. Lamont Butler and Matt Bradley stick to opposing ballhandlers, preventing offenses from getting into a rhythm.

The textbook example came in the final 7:43 against FAU on Saturday. The Owls saw their five-point lead evaporate as they turned the ball over four times and scored just five points (2-of-7 from the floor) the rest of the game.

Of course, UConn can make life easier if it hits 3s at the rate it has the rest of the tournament. SDSU has run teams off the 3-point line all season — but the Huskies possess so many weapons that it may be hard to stop them all. For instance, Jordan Hawkins should be fully recovered a few days removed from his stomach bug (not that it slowed him much against Miami.)

But it's not just the UConn star. Joey Calcaterra and Nahiem Alleyne (and forward Alex Karaban) all command attention on the perimeter. And, thanks to Jackson and Newton's penetration, they get plenty of open looks for step-in triples.

Where the Aztecs should fare well is limiting transition baskets — the Huskies love to shoot pitch-ahead 3s off the fast break. But San Diego State has held teams to the 19th-lowest effective field goal percentage in transition nationally. Slowing UConn down is paramount to an SDSU victory.

4. Hindsight is 2020

And now, a moment to revisit the past:

As San Diego State's historic postseason has unfolded, it has surfaced a fascinating "what if?" dialogue: What if the 2020 NCAA Tournament was never canceled? Could those Aztecs — which featured five players on the current roster — have made a similar run?

We'll start with some of the facts:

The 2020 team has a clear advantage in its record, predictive metrics and overall résumé. Further strengthening their case, the '20 Aztecs laid the absolute hurt on a couple of quality opponents — most notably a 31-point beatdown of top-12 Creighton and a 20-piecing of top-25 Iowa.

The squad played the same stout defense as this year's team but flaunted a significantly better offense (11th on KenPom compared to 68th.) Malachi Flynn, the 2020 MWC Player of the Year, provided legitimate NBA talent to the Aztecs' backcourt. (Flynn was selected 29th overall in the 2020 NBA Draft.) His feel for the game — knowing when to distribute and when to take over — stuck out as a defining characteristic.

Two sweet-shooting wings flanked him in Jordan Schakel and Matt Mitchell, the latter of which possessed some playmaking chops. Finally, big man Yanni Wetzell wasn't quite as menacing as Mensah (who was limited to 13 games that season with a respiratory issue.) However, he functioned as a serviceable defender who relished in the dirty work. Overall, 2020 also has the edge in talent.

The only knocks on that team were its narrow win over a sub-250 San Jose State team in December and its sluggish play down the stretch. In particular, its first loss came at home to subpar UNLV — on a night when it hung its conference championship banner (still a bizarre move, tbh). The next game, it skirted by Colorado State in a two-possession contest, then trailed by 13 at Nevada before rallying in the regular season finale.

Nevertheless, that team had the pieces to stack together some victories in the tournament. But while the evidence strongly suggests it was better than this year's unit, something tells me San Diego State fans don't care all that much.

A Final Four creates an indelible memorial for a season. It doesn't matter how the team stacks up to previous renditions. (Take it from a Carolina fan who watched a maddening team become beloved in a matter of four weeks.) No amount of KenPom numbers or NBA accolades can ever triumph over this accomplishment — and if SDSU gets one more win?

That "What If" no longer looms so large.

5. Final thoughts ahead of tonight

We'll end today with the case for both teams, along with some bold predictions. Best believe I will do a victory lap if I get any of them right and pretend I didn't write them if they're all wrong.

Why San Diego State will win:UConn has faced just two top-20 defenses since Feb. 18 (Saint Mary's and Arkansas), and neither pressure like the Aztecs. San Diego State gets in the grill of Newton, Jackson and Hawkins, and suddenly, those open looks from 3 vanish. The frontcourt trio of Mensah, LeDee and Aguek Arop neutralizes Sanogo and Clingan, taking away an advantage the Huskies exploited against previous opponents. The nail in the coffin? SDSU prevents the Huskies from running while Bradley and Butler continue their hot shooting from Saturday night.

Why UConn will win:FAU exposed some cracks in San Diego State's defense, and UConn will push it until the levee breaks. The floodgates open as Hawkins and Calcaterra rain 3s in the halfcourt and transition. Meanwhile, Bradley's scoring resembles the first four rounds, while Jackson takes Butler out of the game. Darrion Trammel attempts to provide a spark but falters against the Huskies' length. Finally, Sanogo and Clingan wreak havoc all night on both ends of the court, and at least one of them throws down an emphatic dunk that punctuates "One Shining Moment."

Lastly, the bold predictions:

Joey Calcaterra scores 12 points off the benchAnd he does it all on 3-pointers. One comes in the first half, breaking UConn out of a scoring drought. The next three come after the break, with two coming in a decisive stretch that gives the Huskies a sizable lead. Sure, he hasn't hit more than three trifectas in a single game this season — but tonight would be quite the time to change that. Plus, someone unexpected always rises to the occasion in the national championship.

Matt Bradley forces Jordan Hawkins into an off nightI expect UConn to win (more on that below), but I don't think it's because of Jordan Hawkins. His gravity opens up driving lanes, but Bradley cages him much like he did Johnell Davis. The bulky San Diego State wing tracks him off-ball and shows off his agility contesting any step-back or side-step 3.

Tristen Newton wins MOPNewton has logged two triple-doubles this season ... let's say he flirts with one more tonight. In a low-scoring affair, Sanogo fails to eclipse 15 points, and Hawkins doesn't catch fire. So the voters go with Newton, who posts something like a 12-point, 8-assist, 7-rebound stat line.

Final Prediction: UConn 71, San Diego State 61The Aztecs keep it close for about 33 minutes before the Huskies pull away down the stretch. In a reversal of its game against FAU, San Diego State's defense finally slips as UConn proves to have too much firepower. Rob Dauster starts his reign of unbearable terror that lasts until next March.

The safe bet

The Field of 68 crew — including the Three-Man-Weave — have been working hard in Houston. Maybe that's why this segment from Sunday night's show is a little ... loose ... but still informative for those inclined on wagering on the title game.

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Links to click as you wonder why Drake can't stay on beat

• Despite Caitlin Clark's heroics, LSU won the women's national championship (and LSU's Angel Reese was great in the press conference afterward).

• Michigan's Kobe Bufkin declared for the draft.

• TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin is transferring to Colorado.

• North Texas announced Ross Hodge as its next head coach.

• FAU fans, you don't want to know how close Lamont Butler was to stepping out of bounds.

Thanks for reading The Field of 68 Daily! If you have a news tip or feedback, email us at [email protected].