The PACKED college hoops weekend

Good morning! It was one of those weekends where we not only had loads of games, but also a ton of news. If today’s newsletter feels like it skimmed something big, that means it’ll get more attention in tomorrow’s edition.

Let’s get to it.

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1. Is Duke’s ‘butt-whooping’ of Illinois a turning point?

There’s a risk in placing too much emphasis on one game. You learn more about a team over the course of a season, staying aware of good and bad trends.

And yet, Duke’s absolute thumping of Illinois on Saturday in NYC begs for just a bit of over-emphasis.

Consider: the No. 3 Blue Devils won 110-67, the largest margin of victory by any team against a Big Ten opponent since 2000, and essentially the worst loss in a home/neutral non-conference game since 1942-43.

“I don’t know what message [the win] sends,” freshman Cooper Flagg said. But the thing is, he doesn’t have to. The numbers speak for themselves.

Duke shot 55.6% from the field, 52.2% from deep, committed just six turnovers (on 73 possessions), grabbed 44.4% of their missed shots (not that there were many) and scored 1.5 points per possession. For reference, when UConn trucked Illinois in the 2024 Elite Eight, it scored 1.11 ppp.

“Just a good, old-fashioned butt-whooping,” Illinois coach Brad Underwood said.

If there’s such a thing as a perfect offensive game, Duke played it. And in the process, the Blue Devils (24-3) leapfrogged Auburn for No. 1 at KenPom. Their efficiency margin’s now +38.13. Only ‘99 Duke has a higher margin in KenPom’s database.

Sure, Illinois (17-11) isn’t playing its best. It’s now lost three in a row and has been ravaged by a team illness all month. But it’s still among the Big Ten’s most talented teams, and capable of putting up points in bunches.

Maybe that’s why this could be seen as the tipping point of when Duke, not Auburn, is actually the team to beat in March.

No. 1 Auburn (25-2, 13-1 in the SEC) was merely good, not great in a win Saturday over Georgia. Johni Broome was spectacular (31 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks), but the Tigers’ offense hasn’t been quite as sharp the last five games. Perhaps that’s the rigors of the SEC (actually, I’m sure that’s a big reason).

But considering there’s now a 2½-point gap between Duke and Auburn on KenPom and a nearly 5-point gap on EvanMiya, Saturday meant something. I’m just glad there’s a tournament next month to sort it all out.

2. A stunning collapse + five more notable upsets

No. 11 Wisconsin woke up Saturday feeling pretty good about its spot in the Big Ten. It had won five in a row, was just a game behind Michigan State, and was a heavy favorite in four of its final five games.

Heck, that feeling extended into most of Saturday’s home game against Oregon. The Badgers led by double digits for most of the second half and by nine with three minutes left until … well, you know where this is going.

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