Big rally in the Big 12

Did you miss our latest Fielding the Bracket show? It's still fresh, so you're forgiven for now. But set a reminder for every Monday and Friday at 5 pm ET. In the meantime, here's a peek at our bracket projection. A&M, Wisconsin, Penn State and Arizona State shouldn't panic yet.

Let's get to Monday's news.

1. Texas Tech stuns Iowa State

Say it with me: There are no easy wins in the Big 12. Just ask Iowa State.

The No. 13 Cyclones led Texas Tech by 23 points with just under 13 minutes remaining Monday night in Lubbock. Senior Caleb Grill was hot from outside (24 points, 8-of-12 from deep), and they looked ready to rebound from a loss over the weekend to Missouri.

Then Texas Tech — winless in the Big 12 until Monday — got right. It started forcing turnovers for some easy baskets, it began hitting shots, and it looked more like the Tech team most predicted would be a conference contender. The Red Raiders needed Iowa State to miss three game-tying shots at the buzzer, but Tech completed the largest comeback in D-I this season for an 80-77 overtime win. To say the players relished this win would be an understatement.

“I’m not trying to get emotional talking about it, but we showed our grit today,” De'Vion Harmon said. “I mean, it’s been rough. But our guys are so tight and for us to come back and look at the scores thirty to fifty in the second half, we got in a huddle and from then on we just kept going. There’s not another group of guys I would rather play with.”

Senior Kevin Obanor (24 points) led the way for the Raiders (12-10, 1-8 in Big 12), while  Harmon added 16, all of which came in the second half or overtime.

And Iowa State? That's four losses in their past six games, which includes a loss to Oklahoma State, where it led by 14 points. The Cyclones (15-6, 6-3) have struggled on defense (the last three teams have all scored at least 1.07 points per possession), and turnovers plagued them the past two games. 

But maybe there's a motivating factor coming up: They host Kansas on Saturday.

It wasn't the only conference thriller, either.

No. 10 Texas held off No. 11 Baylor, 76-71, and is now all alone atop the Big 12 (at least for a day, pending the results of tonight's Kansas State-Kansas matchup). It looked motivated from the start, too.

The Bears had won six straight and 12 of the previous 13 games against the Longhorns (18-4, 7-2). But Texas was assertive from the jump, pushing the pace whenever possible. It never trailed after a Marcus Carr 3-pointer five minutes into the game and led by nine midway through the second half.

Baylor (16-6, 5-4) didn't go away thanks to its second-chance points on a night when it wasn't connecting from beyond the arc (just 8-of-26). A couple of three-point plays from Adam Flagler and Keyonte George in the final three minutes cut the lead to one. Texas answered in the form of Sir'Jabari Rice and Timmy Allen, who helped seal the win with free throws in the final minute.

Rice finished with a game-high 21 points, while Allen added 18 on a night where leading scorer Marcus Carr struggled (5 points on 2-of-8 from the floor) and Tyrese Hunter (13 points on 17 shots) couldn't find a rhythm.

“That’s what this league is about. You have to put your hat on every day and come to work. That was one of the hardest games I’ve been in since I got here,” Allen said. “In the Big 12, that’s what it takes every night. ”

So again, say it with me: There are no easy wins in the Big 12. 

2. Virginia's got the ACC right where it wants it

Slow and steady is gonna give Virginia yet another ACC title. At least, it seems like that's where we're heading after yet another win. Hard to tell at this rate.

The Cavaliers (17-3, 9-2 in ACC) won their seventh straight, beating Syracuse 67-62 on Monday night. It was your usual Hoos performance — 61 possessions, good shots, stiff defense — with one crucial exception that helped keep the Orange (13-10, 6-6) in the game. They had 14 turnovers, resulting in a season-high 22.8 percent TO rate, a far cry from their season average of 15 percent.

But their poise down the stretch, especially from senior Jayden Gardner, made the difference. He scored a team-high 17 points, including the decisive score, plus in the final minute, he drew a charge and had two defensive rebounds. You know, Virginia things. All those little things that matter when you're not playing your best.

"They just got the ball in the paint at will, scored over the top. We looked a bit lifeless,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett said. “We weren’t flying around and scrapping the way you have to on the road or in any ACC game. In the second half, we got more aggressive, flew around, played even a little harder offensively with cuts and offensive rebounds, and then it was just a game of ebbs and flows. We just had to stay the course.

“This is how it is,” he added. “You get everybody’s best shot.”

They keep handling everyone's best shot, though. Virginia's just one game behind Clemson in the ACC standings and is projected to pass the Tigers by season's end. Be sure to circle Feb. 28 on the calendar when Clemson travels to Charlottesville. We'll see how that race ends up.

(Now's the point where I mention that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was at the game. Yes, it's random. Guess he's studying zone defense. I just hope he didn't ask Jim Boeheim anything after the game.)

Other results to know:

Oral Roberts 103, South Dakota 53The Golden Eagles (20-4, 11-0 in Summit) topped 100 points for the second time in three games and continue to dominate league play. Max Abmas scored 30-plus points for the fifth time this season, while Issac McBride added 20. At this rate, only the season finale at South Dakota State figures to be a close game. (Also, read more on Oral Roberts farther down in The Daily.)

Colgate 76, Loyola Maryland 63Ryan Moffatt scored a team-high 19 points as the Raiders (17-7, 11-0 in Patriot) won their 11th straight. The victory sets up a key showdown Saturday at American. If Colgate wins that game, the odds jump for its chance to finish without a league loss.

Chicago State 76, The Citadel 75You gotta love the Cougars. One of two independent D-I teams, Chicago State (7-17) spends most of its season on the road — and it seems to have made it road-tough. It's now won three of its past four games, the latest on this wild game-winner. And who sunk the shot makes it even sweeter.

Wesley Cardet Jr led Chicago State with 21 points, while Austin Ash paced the Bulldogs (9-of-14) with 24.

Howard 100, South Carolina State 73Jordan Wood scored 18 points as the Bison (14-10, 6-1 in MEAC) rolled to their sixth straight win, maintaining their tie atop the league. In two weeks, they host Maryland Eastern Shore (also winners tonight), which could be the MEAC showdown of the year.

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3. Zach Edey's historical footprint

For the first time all season, AP voters agree on something: Purdue is the unanimous No. 1 team. (It was oh-so-close in Week 9 after one voter still had UConn at one after its loss at Xavier. Hindsight remains unbeaten.)

There's a lot of movement in the rest of the poll, so interested readers can dive in and decide which voters deserve their ire by clicking here. I'd rather talk about a Purdue topic that won't spark dissension.

Zach Edey is a "generational talent," but is he one of the best-ever college hoops big men?

OK, that's actually too broad. How about the last 30 years? How does Edey stack up against other productive bigs? First, we'll turn to the always-incredible Jared Burson.

And, as Berson explains later in a Twitter thread, Edey is thriving against all teams, not just inferior opponents. He's averaging 24.7 ppg and 12.5 rpg on 60 percent shooting. His 21.5 percent offensive rebounding rate leads D-I (Oscar Thiebwe is second at 19 percent), and he has five games with 30 points and 10 rebounds. Only Marvin Bagley (7) and Blake Griffin (6) have more in a season.

Go back 30 seasons, and only three more players have finished in the top five in both points and rebounds:

• Adonal Foyle, 1996-97: 24.4 ppg and 13.1 rpg

• Kurt Thomas, 1994-95: 28.9 ppg and 14.6 rpg (led nation in both)

• Jervaughn Scales, 1993-94: 27.1, 14.2

Going further back, Edey is on track to match David Robinson's 1986-87 season with at least 775 points, 453 rebounds and 77 blocked shots.

The challenge for Edey will be to maintain that production. His rebounding numbers will likely stay at this rate. But as opponents decide how to defend Purdue, expect more and more double teams, which would almost certainly decrease his scoring average. He doesn't have a lot of wiggle room; 11 players are within one point of his season average, and nine of them put up more shots per game.

Edey's impact makes Purdue the clear-cut best team right now. And that's what'll drive any eventual NPOY honors. Whether he maintains this impressive production for some historical marks is something else.

4. Will Oral Roberts' season make Mills a hot candidate?

Pro-tip for any program likely to make a new coaching hire after the season: Don't miss Oral Roberts games. (Crushing South Dakota on Monday was pretty impressive.)

Coach Paul Mills, now in his sixth season, already has a Sweet 16 berth with the Golden Eagles. But this year, they're in a position to surpass the school record for wins in a season (27) and be the trendy Cinderella team in March. (Are they Final Four good? Ask Matty Cox.)

If both things happen, Mills will almost certainly be a coach in demand. Not that it would be a surprise.

“Doors have opened in the past,” Mills told the Tulsa World. “Look at what I’ve done. I stayed at Baylor for 14 years (in spite) of other opportunities.

“I get it. People speculate. I haven’t given any reason to anybody — our players included — to think that I’m not totally committed to them and elevating this program.”

Baylor assistants under Scott Drew seem to be doing pretty well lately. Jerome Tang and Grant McCasland could have their teams in the NCAA Tournament this season. Maybe the other move is to see which Baylor assistant is ready for the jump to head coach...

5. Charting a Lively progression

Dereck Lively II entered this season as arguably the top-rated freshman. But injuries and sub-par play have sapped most of the promise from his season.

Unless ...

That's from BartTorvik.com and highlights the rapid progression Lively has made in his offensive game since Dec. 31 against FSU. In 12 minutes, he had zero points, one rebound, one turnover and three fouls. Saturday against Georgia Tech, Lively had arguably his best game of the year: nine points (on four shots), six rebounds, two assists, three blocks, a steal and no fouls in 24 minutes. And as the chart shows, it's been a remarkably steady progression.

Per EvanMiya.com, Lively has been Duke's second-best player over the last month. He's played fewer possessions than any of Duke's top nine players (that Kyle Filipowski continues to be the Devil's best player and plays by far the most possessions remains one of the more impressive parts of the season). His 3.77 Bayesian Performance Rating only trails Kyle Filipowski's 4.69. (For comparison, Brandon Miller's is 5.16 in the same time frame.)

That said, when Lively is on the court, Duke's adjusted team efficiency margin is 17.5, well below Filipowski, Ryan Young, Jaylen Blakes and Tyrese Proctor. And the entire team has improved over the last month, not just Lively. 

The next four games — Wake Forest, UNC, at Miami and Virginia — will be the true indicator of Lively's progression. It's unlikely to continue rising (only Zach Edey does stuff like that), but any continued development will be a huge boost for Duke's chances in March.

A killer stat

We love our tempo-free and advanced statistical data at the Field of 68. We routinely reference KenPom.com, and when we say "Pull Out Your Torvik," it's not a dirty phrase.

But the coolest stat in college hoops might be the 'Kill Shot." For a generation of gamers, it's an instantly recognizable term that signals a game is all but over. So where did the term come from, and how is it applied? For that, Evan Miyakawa, owner of the excellent analytics site EvanMiya.com, can explain in the latest Four Questions.

Q: When did you start tracking "Kill Shots"? At what point when you're going through data did you notice that this had a meaningful impact on a game's outcome?

Evan Miyakawa: The origin of the Kill Shot was last January as I was watching an Illinois game. It seemed to me like they were one of the most “streaky” teams in the country since they often went on big scoring spurts but then at a moment’s notice could give away a bunch of points. My mind immediately started to think about ways to quantify “spurtability,” as it’s often called, and I came up with the idea of tracking every team’s 10-0 scoring runs. That value was chosen partly for simplicity but also because it’s an easy number for people to track casually as they are watching the game.

Q: Does every game have a kill shot? How many will you see in a year?

Evan Miyakawa: There is a kill shot in 64 percent of games, and there are 0.94 per game on average.

Q: How much variance is there by year? Are there any programs that consistently produce these? I'd think a lot of this would be dependent on a mix of playing style and personnel.

Evan Miyakawa: I don’t have data (yet) going back more than two seasons on Kill Shots, but there does seem to be a healthy amount of consistency year to year for a team that plays a similar style each season. For example, Illinois, who I mentioned earlier, has been in the “more streaky” category the last two years, which means that they have lots of scoring runs but also are more prone to conceding them as well, which I think is partly due to Brad Underwood’s coaching style. Meanwhile, UConn the last two years has been among the nation’s leaders in the fewest Kill Shots allowed. Hurley’s teams gain control of the game and don’t often allow wild swings.

Q: As you evolve your site, are there other custom stats that you're tracking to see how they impact a game? It looks to me like the lineup data is probably the most promising area.

Evan Miyakawa: In terms of custom metrics at EvanMiya.com, there’s a ton of great stuff: Bayesian Performance Rating is an all-encompassing player metric that measures the value a player adds while he is on the floor on offense and defense. It is, in my opinion, the best metric available for capturing a player’s overall impact on the game. For each player, it uses individual box score stats, impact on team performance while on the floor for each possession, and some historical information to give the best sense of how valuable a player will be going forward at any point in the season.

The lineup metrics have gained a lot of traction recently as well. For each team, you can view the performance of each lineup in terms of per-possession efficiency, adjusted for the strength of opposition faced on all plays. You can also look at 2-man, 3-man, and 4-man player combination performance as well. There’s even more I could get into but you can read more about it on the website. I also always have new things I’m working on behind the scenes (stay tuned).

If you haven't gone through Evan's site yet, not sure what you're waiting for. Click here.

Can Northwestern pass this test?

Chris Collins' Wildcats are one of the season's most surprising teams. They're 15-5 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten, which places them all alone in second place entering tonight's game at Iowa. And while their defense may have been their early season calling card, it's Northwestern's offense that is making the difference in league play. They've yet to score less than 1.04 points per possession in any of their nine games and have the fourth-most efficient offense in league play. Tonight might be a good time to have the defense re-emerge. Iowa (13-8, 5-5) is only behind Purdue as the conference's most efficient offense (makes shocked/not shocked face) and has won its last four home games, three by at least nine points. (9 pm ET, Big Ten Network)

Other games to watch (All times ET)

• Indiana (15-6, 6-4 in Big Ten) at Maryland (14-7, 5-5), 9 pm (ESPN2)

• Virginia Tech (13-8, 3-7 in ACC) at Miami (16-5, 7-4), 7 pm (ESPNU)

• Texas A&M (15-6, 7-1 in SEC) at Arkansas (14-7, 3-5), 7 pm (ESPN2)

• Wake Forest (14-8, 6-5 in ACC) at Duke (15-6, 6-4), 7 pm (ESPN)

• Kansas State (18-3, 6-2 in Big 12) at Kansas (17-4, 5-3), 8 pm (ESPN+)

• West Virginia (13-8, 2-6 in Big 12) at TCU (16-5, 5-3), 9 pm (ESPNU)

• San Diego State (17-4, 8-1 in MWC) at Nevada (16-6, 6-3), 11 pm (CBS Sports Network)

Maybe it ain't luck ...

There's a three-way tie atop the Big East with Xavier, Marquette and Providence at 9-2. The Musketeers were expected to compete for the title, but to see the Eagles and Friars this high with a month left in the season is a helluva thing. 

Marquette is winning with a returning core. Providence basically has an entirely new roster. So how is Ed Cooley's team getting it done? Terrence Oglesby, Geo Baker and John Fanta weigh in. (Also, if you want the Providence shirt TO's wearing in the video, click here.)

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Links as you buy yet another Super Bowl square. 

• The Wooden Award announced its late season Top 20 list. No major quibbles, though I think Jake Stephens probably deserves a spot.

• Indiana — yes, that Indiana — leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 38.4 percent on the season.

• On that note, Maryland coach Kevin Willard says TJD is "the best player in the country right now."

• Kansas won't have Zuby Ejiofor "for a while," leaving Ernest Udeh as the first big man off the bench.

• Could the NCAA be closing in on NIL violations? More coming on this tomorrow.

• Can UNLV's defense round into shape after a solid win this weekend?

Thanks for reading The Field of 68 Daily! If you have a news tip or feedback, email us at [email protected]

And don't forget to listen to The Field of 68 AFTER DARK every night at 11 pm ET on Sirius XM radio, or watch it on YouTube and Twitter.

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