New Volunteers, new look

Offensive is no longer optional in Tennessee, which could mean this is the year Rick Barnes finally reaches a Final Four. Plus, exhibition and scrimmage results, NIT changes, a K-State player arrested and more.

Author

Mike Miller
October 30, 2023

Forget the “secret” scrimmages. The best news all weekend was that West Virginia forward Akok Akok was released from the hospital on Sunday after suffering a medial emergency during Friday’s charity exhibition against George Mason. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery and no further issues.

On to the other weekend news.

1. Offense finally reached the Rocky Top

Tennessee finished the last three seasons rated as the No. 1, No. 3 and No. 5 defense on kenpom.com. To call the Vols a defensive-oriented team would be underselling it.

It’s created plenty of regular-season success — 70 wins over that span — but just one Sweet 16. So coach Rick Barnes did what coaches do today. He turned to the transfer portal to address those needs. From The Almanac:

There’s little doubt that Tennessee is once again going to be a great defensive team.

But if the Vols want to have a higher ceiling than the Sweet 16, they are going to have to be better offensively. Despite being top five in the country in offensive rebounding, the Vols finished 64th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and in the bottom half of the country in shooting percentages across the board.

That’s where the newcomers enter the equation.

Tennessee brought in a pair of transfers known for what they can do offensively. Northern Colorado’s Dalton Knecht appeared this summer to be the more prepared of the two for a major role early on in the SEC.

…

Meanwhile, Jordan Gainey is younger and smaller at 6-4, but it’s his versatility that caught the coaching staff’s eye. He can play anywhere from the 1 to the 3, and he can do it while scoring in bunches. As a freshman, he shot 49% from 3 on nearly five attempts per game at USC Upstate.

And then there is Freddie Dillione V, a talented 6-5 scoring guard who reclassified and redshirted at Tennessee this past season. He’s one of the few guys on this roster that can create a bucket out of nothing on his own.

So let’s dive into how the season could shake out with Will Warren, devoted Tennessee fan and author of Stats by Will, an excellent college hoops substack that you should subscribe to, if you aren’t already.

Is this finally the Vols team that can consistently score? The roster sure seems like the pieces are there. I’m not even asking for a version like 2018-19 when the offense was Top 5. I’m just wondering if we get to Top 20.

Will: I actually feel somewhat optimistic about this year’s offense, mostly because it seems like Tennessee’s targets via portal or freshmen this year are universally offense-first. You have Knecht as the headliner, obviously, but Jordan Gainey is a career 41% deep shooter, Freddie Dilione has been a serious bucket-getter across every level he’s played at, etc. I kind of find the issues with the actual offensive structure of Barnes to be overblown; the system itself is pretty space-heavy these days (ShotQuality had it top 30 in their spacing metric last season) and it creates good shots. The problem is that the last plus shot makers they had were on said 2018-19 roster, when they created worse shots on the whole. I think something like top 25-30 is a reasonable ask with the roster and if you’re that high, top 20 obviously is not far away.

But there will be a trade off, right? Barnes’ scheme can accommodate a couple of shooters unable to close lanes or guard on the perimeter, but until Zakai Ziegler returns, are you worried it’s going to be an average defense? (I know, that seems like a foolish thing to ask given their recent seasons, but it sure seems like a different Tennessee team).

Will: I think average defense is a little much, but if Tennessee takes a step back to being just one of the 5-10 best defenses this year instead of a lock for top 3 it wouldn’t surprise me. Tennessee lost a few pieces in the off-season but the one that mattered most for this purpose was probably Julian Phillips. I think Phillips got underrated because he struggled heavily on offense, but he could cover anyone from 1-4 on defense and was a tremendous piece to have against many opponents. Tennessee has Jahmai Mashack, but Mashack is 6-4 and not the 6-8 Phillips was. My questions are honestly less about the perimeter D — JJJ, Mashack, and Vescovi are all huge pluses there anyway — and more about the interior. I adore Jonas Aidoo at center but he’s had serious foul issues in the past. The same goes for Tobe Awaka. If Aidoo can limit the fouls this is going to be a tremendous rim protection unit, but I need to see it to believe it.

I never thought I’d hear someone almost pine for Plavsic’s elbow…

Who’s gonna be the breakout star for the Vols? You mentioned Dilione— Rob Dauster once described him as a “walking bucket” which might make him a fan favorite. I think the more non-Vols fans watch Mashack, they might appreciate him. Or is Tennessee incapable of having a singular standout star? I promise that’s meant as a compliment because of their balance and approach.

Will: I think Tennessee may be incapable of having a standout star on both ends precisely of how you meant it. Mike Gribanov, a writer I greatly respect, said last year that Tennessee and Houston were the only teams in America with four truly elite, NBA-level defenders on their roster. I think Tennessee probably gets to say that exact same thing this year and then some. All of Aidoo, James, Zeigler, and Mashack are so good defensively that it almost gets lost how much better Santiago Vescovi has become defensively over the course of his career. If you play those five together it is nigh-impossible to score on.

It kind of feels like cheating to say "breakout" star because he's probably already broken out, but would Zeigler count as a national breakout star versus regional? He was an elite, elite shooter in high school and has profiled as such at times for Tennessee. He's yet to put that side of it together for a full year, but a world in which he posts a 40% season from three is not incomprehensible to think about. If he does that and sustains the defense and remains the high-quality passer and creator he is, that's a First Team All-SEC player. It's asking a lot post-ACL but we've seen guys come back from that and more before.

A darkhorse here is Knecht. I was tempted to put Aidoo or Mashack here but I think the nature of Tennessee's defense might prevent a true star of stars. Knecht's been noted by most beat writers and media types as the clear offensive leader in preseason. The CBB obsessives like us are already aware of him but if you're a more casual viewer you probably have no idea who the guy that averaged 20 & 9 at Northern Colorado is. That could change this year if he turns into the type of go-to scorer Tennessee needs him to be.

Is Tennessee the best college hoops program in the SEC?

Will: I think they’re the best SEC basketball program…from November to February. From 2017-18 to present, per Bart Torvik, Tennessee’s played like the best program in the conference and the sixth-best in the entire nation. They’ve won more games than anyone else in the conference, and they and Kentucky have a near-equal SEC record at the top of the league. But: that’s November through February.

You could make a real argument that no program over the last 5-6 years has underachieved more than Tennessee in March. (Arizona is the only team I’d offer alongside them.) You’d pick Auburn, Arkansas, and Kentucky in the Tournament first. I do not think Rick Barnes’ system is completely averse to March success, and they’ve probably been a bit unlucky over the years. Luck only counts for so much, though. It’s time for them to prove that the things that work the first four months of the season can work in the fifth or even the sixth month.

Tennessee opens its season on Nov. 6 against Tennessee Tech.

2. Exhibition + ‘secret’ scrimmage thoughts

Thankfully, the weekend didn’t only have a bunch of “secret” scrimmages. Even if some of those results can be eyebrow raising — Florida Atlantic lost another scrimmage by double-digits, this time to UCF (!) — they’re still just glorified practices.

Some of the exhibitions aren’t much better (for example, teams aren’t counting fouls), but there are developments to keep in mind. Such as with Tennessee’s 89-88 win over Michigan State.

As Will Warren details above, the Vols’ offense should be significantly better this season. We got several glimpses of that in Sunday evening in East Lansing. Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht (28 points) looked spry and quite comfortable against the Spartans. OK, he looked more than a little comfortable.

If Knecht is gonna make plays like that and shoot 50% from the floor, Tennessee’s floor spacing is gonna make them a Top 5 mainstay.

Michigan State was sloppy with the ball, and did quite a bit of pressing, which opened things up a bit (exhibition mode), so there’s that. Oh, and the requisite Coen Carr highlight is worth your time.

Illinois’ 82-75 exhibition win over Kansas was another one for measured results. Or more, if you’re an Illinois fan, given the game wasn’t just two teams going through the motions.

The Illini shot well (25-56 overall, 11-27 from deep), seemed to find the right lineup mix, and may have finally get the Coleman Hawkins we’ve all been expecting for more than a year. Also, Terrence Shannon (28 points, including 5 3s) remains an All-America caliber player.

Meanwhile, it was a valuable few hours for the Jayhawks, especially if they’re to live up to the No. 1 ranking. Perimeter shooting remains a massive concern (just 3-of-12 from deep), and their best shooter, Towson transfer Nick Timberlake, looked a bit overmatched athletically. One would assume coach Bill Self will scheme plays for him to get better looks in actual games. Also, the defense was underwhelming for what it should be this season. Gonna chalk that up to exhibition vibes.

Should Purdue panic after an 81-77 loss at Arkansas? Shooting remains an issue for the Boilermakers (just 8-of-23 from deep), and the defense looked lost. Too early to panic. But if you’re Arkansas, you’re awfully pleased with Trevon Brazille’s mobility after his ACL injury. And El Ellis must be DELIGHTED to be on a winning team.

Wake Forest got 38 points from junior Cameron Hildreth in an 88-80 exhibition win over Alabama. The Deacs were down by double-digits at halftime, so I’m mostly wondering if Hildreth will be their breakout star for this season, much like Tyree Appleby last season.

Texas Tech’s offense was the story in its 89-84 exhibition win over Texas A&M. I wasn’t sure if they’d hit 80 all season under new coach Grant McCasland, but if the Red Raiders can shoot like this (14-for-27 beyond the arc) and display the same ball movement, it’ll be a fine debut season for McCasland.

Tiw more exhibition results to know:

And here are “secret” scrimmage results:

3. Are NIT changes a sign of what awaits the Big Dance?

When news emerged last month that Fox Sports was trying to launch a new postseason basketball tournament, some brushed it off another middling March event most fans would ignore.

But we saw it for what it was: A sign that media entities won’t care if the opportunity arises to change the NCAA Tournament.

On Friday, the NIT Board of Managers announced critical changes to the NIT. And these changes suck.

This marginalizes mid-major schools in favor of power conference programs that are ready for their season to be over. It’s a lame attempt at adding as many recognizable schools as possible in a tournament, without regard for the quality of basketball.

As one coach told Goodman, “So the teams that can afford playing in a pay for play get to play postseason on the NCAA’s dime while the schools that earn the right by virtue of a regular season title have to pay $75-$100k if they want to play in the postseason? This is criminal.”

Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez is not a fan of the changes. Same with the Big Sky’s Tom Wistrcill, and Ivy League ED Robin Harris. Big West Commissioner Dan Butterly is irate. MAC Commissioner Jon Steinbrecher says it’s a surprising and disappointing change made without any notice.

As The Field of 68 explained on Friday, this isn’t only about the NIT. This is a test run to what the NCAA Tournament could be if the wrong decisions are made about selecting the field. March Madness doesn’t need only power-conference schools. It needs tradition, storylines, and a lot of Cinderellas for people to cheer for.

(Cynics will note this is actually just a great way to back-door an NCAA Tournament expansion ensure you can accommodate as many teams as possible.)

4. K-State’s Tomlin arrested for bar fight

Nae’Qwan Tomlin returned to Kansas State this season with the expectation that, as the Wildcats’ leading returning scorer and rebounder, that he’ll be one of the Wildcats’ top players.

He may not get that chance to start the season.

Tomlin, a senior forward who helped K-State reach the NCAA Tournament's Elite Eight last season, was arrested at 1:52 a.m. by Riley County Police at Tubby's Sports Bar, 1127 Moro Street, on chargers of "Disorderly conduct: Brawling or Fighting," according to the RCPD daily arrest report. The report said Tomlin was not confined after posting a $750 bond.

Tubby's is in Aggieville, Manhattan's main entertainment district. Police responded there to a call at 1:51 a.m. Sunday for a fight in progress, according to the RCPD media incident report.

The school did not issue a comment on Sunday.

Tomlin averaged 10.4 ppg and 5.9 rpg last season and was a key player in their 26-10 season. He explored entering the NBA Draft, but the NYC native elected to return to Manhattan (Kan.) for another season.

K-State has an exhibition game this Wednesday against Emporia State. It then opens its season on Nov. 6 in Las Vegas against USC in what should be one of college basketball’s premier opening-night matchups.

5. Providence loses a 2024 commit

New Providence coach Kim English crushed it with recruits and with his returning players over the summer. He convinced stars Bryce Hopkins and Devon Carter to stay put, and also kept 4-star combo guard Garwey Dual to honor his commitment to the school, which came under Ed Cooley.

English now has work to do for 2024.

Three-star point guard Daquan Davis told On3.com that he’s decommitting from Providence. He’d chosen the Friars in June (to English) over schools such as Maryland, Notre Dame and Miss State.

Early Twitter speculation is that Indiana could be an option for the 6-1 Baltimore native.

In more 2024 recruiting news:

Miller time

Xavier coach, Field of 68 alum, and proud podcast host Sean Miller says that even with injuries to two of the Musketeers’ best players, he still thinks they’ll be a handful in the Big East. As good as last season? We’ll, you’ll have to watch to find out.

Links as you catch a Friends rerun. RIP, Matthew Perry.

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