What it Takes to Win in March

March is here, baby!

March 09, 2021

Tipoff

This time of year, there is an abundance of advice for would-be bracket-builders. Each proclaims to know the ingredients to the secret recipe of a winning team. Headlines abound, such as ”One of These 6 Teams Will Win the National Championship.” By looking at past champions, the authors glean a profile of a winner. The flaw in this analysis usually comes when they look at 2014 UConn, a 7-seed that lost by 33 points to Louisville to finish the regular season before going on one of the most improbable runs in NCAA tournament history. The point of looking at that UConn team is that it is the exception that proves the rule; weird stuff happens in March. How should you think about your brackets, then?

All things being equal, talent tends to carry the day. That is not always the case (see 2019 Duke, for example). More often than not, the teams that win in March have overwhelming talent. The 2018 Villanova squad was so deep with talent that FInal Four Most Outstanding Player and current Milwaukee Buck, Dante DiVincenzo, came off the bench. Likewise, the 2004 UConn team with National Player of the Year Emeka Okafor and future NBA star Ben Gordon, among several others, bullied their way to a National Title with shot blocking, rebounding, and timely jumpers. Pick the teams with the most talent this year, such as Gonzaga and their three Naismith Award finalists or Illinois with National Player of the Year candidate Ayo Dosunmu, a stable of talented guards, and mammoth center Kofi Cockburn.

Or maybe you should look to the singular talent that can win the game when it matters most. Players like Buddy Hield of 2016 Oklahoma, Kemba Walker of 2011 UConn, and Carmelo Anthony of 2003 Syracuse have willed their way to the Final Four and National Title. Look to Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham this season, or back to UConn and James Bouknight, for this year’s examples.

Yet another approach is to look for historical patterns. While the B1G has had at least one team make the Final Four in 14 of the past 21 NCAA Tournaments, the last member of the conference to win it all was Michigan State way back in 2000. That means Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, or Ohio State are destined to watch as another team celebrates with confetti and a net-cutting ceremony. Is this the year that the B1G breaks its long National Championship drought? Like I said, weird stuff happens in March.

Whatever approach you take to filling out your bracket, the most important thing to keep in mind is that the NCAA Tournament is a single-elimination contest where the most deserving teams will not win the whole thing with startling regularity. In the 18 years of the stats website www.kenpom.com run by Ken Pomeroy, on only 3 occasions has the team ranked #1 entering the NCAA Tournament won the National Championship. It was more common for teams ranked #2 to win and just as common for teams ranked #3 or outside of the top 10 altogether to win it outright. Then again, sometimes the best team wins. And that is what matters in March; no one knows the secret recipe.

The Mixtape

The Field of 68 team puts out lots of great content each week. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights.

  • Dunk City!!! The legends of the 2013 NCAA Tournament, Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) were featured on 68 Shining Moments with Rob Dauster, including stars Brett Comer and Sherwood Brown. The Eagles famously took down #2-seed Georgetown and Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter in the first round and did so in dramatic fashion. The former players break down their mindset entering the NCAA Tournament and their experience as viral sensations.

  • CBS Sports Senior Writer and Bracketologist (and fellow Northwest Indiana native) Jerry Palm joined the Boiler Up podcast with former Purdue standout Raphael Davis. The two talked about Purdue’s potential this season and the “Baby Boilers,” including Zach Edey, Jaden Ivey, and Brandon Newman. Before looking forward, Palm and Davis spent a little time down memory road during the early days of Gene Keady’s head coaching tenure.

  • On 30 Minutes of Hell with Pat Bradley, ESPN’s Jimmy Dykes breaks down the Hogs and talks about what makes them a contender this year under Eric Mussellman. Dykes also reflects on his long and varied career behind the microphone. Coach Dykes coached the women’s team in Fayetteville in addition to serving as an assistant coach on the men’s side in both college and the NBA. Bradley and Dykes talk about these experiences, dog shows, and more on the podcast.

  • You know what? Your team sucks. Yeah, even you, Illinois fans. Why is that? Brian Snow joins Rob Dauster & Da’Sean Butler to tell you why the top 12 teams suck. It is all in good fun, though, as the format is to focus on the flaws of the best teams in the country. Only one team can cut down the nets in Indianapolis, after all. Snow, Dauster, and Butler take a look at Supermen and find their’ Kryptonite.

Conference Tracker

It’s Championship Season! Let’s take a look at conference tournament action and what lies ahead.

  • Atlantic Sun Conference. The top-seeded Liberty Flames became the first team to win an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and that was before they played in the ASUN Conference Tournament Final on Sunday. Conference newcomer North Alabama is transitioning to Division 1 this year and is not eligible for the Big Dance. When the appropriately named NA beat Florida Gulf Coast on Friday evening in the semifinal, Liberty was guaranteed a spot in the Field of 68 (let’s see how often we can include that in this section - 1). The Flames took care of business anyway and held on just enough in a 79-75 victory to qualify for their fifth ever NCAA Tournament appearance.

  • Big South Conference. If you are looking for a team that can bust some brackets in the Field of 68 (2) this year, look no further than the Winthrop Eagles. The top-seeded team in the Big South had no trouble in their conference tournament and won the final game over the Campbell Camels, 80-53. The Eagles are 23-1 on the season and boast one of the better defenses in the country.

  • Colonial Athletic Conference. Few of the top seeds in mid-major conferences had an easy time of things in the postseason, and nowhere was that more evident than in the Colonial. Top seed James Madison fell to 8-seed Elon on Sunday in a thriller and now the Elon Phoenix will face the Drexel Dragons on Tuesday night with the Tournament Title on the line. Elon has never been part of the Field of 68 (3) during its 22 seasons in Division 1. Drexel is on a long tournament drought of their own, last appearing in the NCAA Tournament in 1996. One happy team will cut down the nets tonight from the Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisonburg, Virginia.

    • #6 Drexel vs. #8 Elon (7:00 p.m. EST on CBSSN)

  • Horizon League. The Horizon League was the first conference to begin its postseason, way back on Thursday, February 25th, and it still hasn’t ended! This is getting longer than the ending of the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. That all ends tonight as top-seed Cleveland State, survivor of an overtime score from 10-seed Fort Wayne last week, takes on Oakland for a chance to go dancing in the Field of 68 (4). If you want to get sneak peak at one of the NCAA Tournament sites, tune into this one, which will broadcast from the Indiana Farmers Coliseum from Indianapolis.

    • #1 Cleveland State vs. #3 Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

  • Missouri Valley Conference. The Ramblers of Loyola-Chicago were conference regular season and tournament champions again this year. They will be making their way to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since their famous run to the Final Four in 2018. On that team, guided by #1 Loyola-Chicago superfan Sister Jean, a young freshmen center Cameron Krutwig was a role player. This year, he is their star player and also looks like a former cop-turned gym teacher. While his mustache may lack panache, his game is beautiful and it may be enough to help the Ramblers to make a deep run yet again in the Field of 68 (5).

  • Northeast Conference. The NEC Tournament Final takes place Tuesday evening between #2 Bryant and #3 Mount St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs will be looking to make their first ever NCAA Tournament while the Mountaineers (I mean, Rockies was an available name, or something slightly more original) will be looking for their 6th ever appearance among the Field of 68 (6) and first tournament win.

    • #2 Bryant vs. #3 Mount St. Mary’s (7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN3)

  • Ohio Valley Conference. It was a matchup of #1 vs. #2 on Saturday night as top-seeded Belmont fell to Morehead State. The Eagles were led by freshman forward Johni Broome all year and he came up big in the final, scoring 27 points to go along with 12 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks in the deciding game. The Eagles will join the Field of 68 (7) for the first time since 2011.

  • Southern Conference. While Duke, NC State, UNC, and Wake Forest have had a rough patch over the past couple of years, 2021 might be known as the year of the lesser-known North Carolina schools. Elon will be playing for the Colonial Conference Title tonight while UNC-Greensboro has already punched its ticket to the Field of 68 (8). The Spartans, led by former UNC walk-on and current head coach Wes Miller, have won at least 20 games in each of the past 5 seasons and have claimed the SoCon Tournament for the second time during that stretch. Also, keep an eye on 6’0” guard Isaiah Miller, a two-time SoCon Player of the Year and diminutive dunking machine.

  • Summit League. Monday night was a rough one for the state of South Dakota as both top-seeded South Dakota State and 2-seed South Dakota lost in the Summit League Tournament Semifinals. Tonight, North Dakota State and Oral Roberts will battle for the tournament crown and automatic pass to the Field of 68 (9).

    • #3 ND State vs. #4 Oral Roberts (9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2)

  • Sun Belt Conference. Another North Carolina school, Appalachian State, came through in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Final on Monday night as the Mountaineers defeated the Georgia State Panthers. This will be the third NCAA Tournament appearance for App State and first since 2000. As a 7-seed in the conference, they will likely get a low seed in the Field of 68 (10). You have probably already guessed that the Selection Committee is going to match them up against Michigan, haven’t you? Yeah, me too.

  • West Coast Conference. You may be surprised to read this, but the Gonzaga Bulldogs are undefeated and entering the West Coast Conference Tournament Final tonight undefeated as they match up against the BYU Cougars. That’s right, there is an undefeated mid-major that has a chance to enter the Field of 68 (11!) without a loss. Why isn’t this a bigger story? It was huge news when the Kentucky Platoon Squad did that in 2015. Isn’t it kind of strange how the Bulldogs have almost flown under the radar this season? Anyway, the #1-ranked team plays for their 19th WCC Tournament Title tonight.

    • #1 Gonzaga vs. #2 BYU (9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

Four Point Play

Each Tuesday, we’ll check in with one of our podcast hosts and see what they’re up to in addition to producing compelling content for us at The Field of 68.

This week, we check in with former Gonzaga guard Dan Dickau, host of Dan Dickau’s Bulldog Broadcast podcast (available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts).

  1. You were part of the first Gonzaga teams to be coached by Mark Few, first sitting out after transferring from Washington during Few’s first season and then starting for two years, including your All-American senior season in which Gonzaga finished the year ranked in the AP Poll to end the season (6th) for the first time in program history. As a member of the modern “origin story” for a nationally-recognized program, what is your favorite superhero origin story?

  • Our family just finished watching a lot of the Batman movies. Bruce Wayne is a classic. If you want to tie it into Gonzaga, there was the Great Alaska Shootout in 1997 defeating Clemson (ranked #5 in the AP Poll at the time). They felt like they were going to be an NCAA Tournament team that year. They ended up losing in the conference tournament and didn’t make it. The guys on that team got together after that season and decided they would not let it happen again. The next year, that was the year they beat Florida in the Sweet 16 and played against UConn in the Elite 8.

  1. You have known Mark Few for a long time. During that time, we have seen this Gonzaga program rise to become one of the premier programs in college basketball. What makes Few such an effective coach and has made him so successful in Spokane? And what is the next step for the Bulldogs, outside of winning that elusive National Championship?

  • With Coach Few, he’s got just such a good feel for when to push guys, when to push his team, and how to focus on what’s important. At the end of the day, a lot of coaches try to be great at everything. Coach Few understands the strength of certain players and what certain teams need to maximize what they have. Along those lines but slightly different, is that he is aware of the weaknesses in his opponents and even his own players and team. For me, I was never a great defender at the college level. He told me during my redshirt year that I had to get tougher, to guard guys and keep guys out of the paint. Knowing the strengths that I had, he gave me the confidence to work on my strengths and to play free on the offensive end to make use of those skills, to play pick-and-roll, to shoot freely. If you earn that trust, he allows you to play to that strength. For Gonzaga, everyone focuses on the national championship and rightfully so. If you take their resume over the last 22 years and ask every program - except the teams that have won multiple National Titles - any team would take that resume. Even those teams, like Kentucky, Villanova, and Duke, there have been years they have struggled to make the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga is on pace to win 30 wins - if they get to the Final Four this year - for the 5th consecutive time and 6th time in 7 seasons.

  1. In a lot of ways, you were a trendsetter as a transfer that thrived at Gonzaga. Since your playing days, players like Kyle Wiltjer and Brandon Clarke have had success after transferring to the ‘Zags. Other players have struggled when they change locations, either through a transfer in college or an NBA trade. What are the keys to success when you move to a new team? In my case, transferring was uncommon at that time. I knew if I wanted to make the most of my college career I needed to be at Gonzaga. The programs that are accepting transfers have to be very selective. Gonzaga has been very selective for guys that fit the culture and work ethic. In that redshirt year, you get pushed and challenged to prepare you for when you are going to play. I visited with the team when Nigel Williams-Goss and Brandon Clarke had their redshirt years. I would go to practice to watch those and other guys. They would be leading the scout team during practice and raise the level of not only their games but those of teammates. I think that’s always something that has to be done during the transition year. For me, the guys I had to go against in practice everyday were really good. I was guarding Matt Santangelo or Richie Frahm or someone that was bigger than me. On the offensive end, I was going against really experienced guys. When I was on the scout team, Coach Few put me in a position to play the best player for the opponent. If that team had a good 2 guard, I was looking for my shot every time I crossed the halfcourt. Other times, I was playing as their point guard and driving to the rim. They do a lot of things for the redshirts that are sitting out.

And one!

  1. Between transferring during college to being part of 8 different trades during your NBA career, you’ve been on the move throughout your life in basketball. That gives you a lot of experience with being on the move. With travel restrictions about to ease up for everyone once the pandemic ends, what advice do you have for the people anxious to travel again?

  • Enjoy it. For me, calling games as a broadcaster has been awesome, as far as calling games from home. That doesn’t replace being in the arena and having the energy of the crowds. When things open up, I think you’re going to see people appreciate the things they took for granted before, whether it is being in a student section at a college game or being at a professional game. I think people will step back and appreciate the moment a little more.

Look out for upcoming episodes of Dan Dickau’s Bulldog Broadcast. Dan has some big-time guests coming up soon, including Dan Monson, Leon Rice, and others that are close friends of Coach Few.

Tuesday Superlatives

Each week, we will shine a light on a team and an individual player that has captured the hearts of the world of college basketball.

  • Team of the Week: Michigan State

    • This is more of a body of work award. The Spartans, once sitting at 10-9 overall and 4-9 in the B1G, were dead in the water, far beyond the tournament bubble. What did Sparty do over the final few weeks? They beat Indiana twice, Illinois and Ohio State at home, and within the last week, split the home-and-home series with conference leader and presumptive 1-seed Michigan. While many teams were finding ways to pop their own bubbles, Michigan State surged into the Field of 68 behind the stellar play of junior forward Aaron Henry. For that, they get this very modest yet prestigious award. I doff my cap towards East Lansing, nonetheless. Bravo!

  • Player of the Week: Zach Edey

    • There are two things in life that go together like peas in a pod. One is a random story by Dick Vitale about Derek Jeter during the final 5 minutes of a close and important college basketball game. The other is the Purdue Boilermakers and freakishly tall centers. The latest and tallest in a long line of these skyscrapers is 7’4” freshman Zach Edey. The young/big man had an outstanding week, averaging an efficient 20.5 points and 8 rebounds in just 39 total minutes as Purdue closed out the regular season with wins over Wisconsin and Indiana. Look out for Edey as the “Baby Boilers” make a run in the B1G and NCAA Tournaments.