REVENGE OF THE MID-MAJOR

David Blumenthal is the brand new Field of 68 newsletter columnist/author/scribe/whatever. He is a freelance writer, researcher, and college basketball enthusiast based in New York City, although he still behaves like a Midwesterner. He can be reached at [email protected].

Tipoff

It’s bubble season and the mid-majors are sharpening their needles. In a wide-ranging interview on the Goodman & Hummel podcast, the NCAA’s Dan Gavitt and David Worlock talked about the all-important NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. For some reason that remains a mystery, Gavitt explains that the tournament cannot be pushed back from the week of March 15th. This sets up a scenario in which mid-major conferences could wreak havoc on the high-major teams precariously sitting on the bubble. Imagine a tournament without Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina. That could happen this year.

Mid-major conferences have a financial incentive to get as many teams into the tournament as they can. A one- or two-bid conference like the WCC with a shoe-in team in Gonzaga could suggest to the ‘Zags they should sit out the conference tournament this year. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey recently predicted ACC teams might do the same rather than risk a COVID outbreak right before the NCAA Tournament. If Gonzaga decides that the WCC conference tournament isn’t worth risking a chance to win the NCAA Title, then BYU could get the automatic ticket to the NCAA Tournament. That would knock a bubble team out of the Field of 68 (nice reference, right?). Or imagine the outrage if most of the B1G teams sit out and Northwestern wins a depleted conference tournament.

With many blue bloods struggling this season, the NCAA faces tough choices. The conference lost a reported $800 million when the tournament was cancelled last year. This year, they may be facing a tournament without many of the most popular teams. This could have been avoided with forethought and planning. The NCAA has not explained why, when they negotiated to move the tournament to the Indianapolis area, they did not create a 10-14 day buffer to allow teams to quarantine following the regular season. Instead, the season hangs on the brink as top-ranked teams remove themselves from conference tournaments.

Advanced Analytics

Go beyond the traditional counting stats you see in the box score (points, assists, rebounds, fouls, etc.) to understand the stats that are revolutionizing the game.

Rob allows me to do more or less whatever I want with this newsletter, which is a bold move. One thing I want to try out is this section on advanced analytics. What basketball junkie wouldn’t want to read about stats? If this section is boring, leave a comment letting me know. We are all about engaging the audience here at the Field of 68!

We cannot begin to discuss stats without discussing the father of advanced stats, Dean Oliver. The author of Basketball on Paper, Oliver revolutionized thinking about the game of basketball by focusing on opportunity rather than the counting stats. By counting stats, we are talking about the numbers that appear in the box score that get counted up for each player: minutes played, field goal attempts, assists, turnovers, blocks, and so on. Oliver points out that the box score can be deceiving as it does not account for the pace of play. A player on a team that plays at a fast tempo is going to get more shot opportunities than a player on a team that is deliberate in their approach and walks the ball up the court each time on offense. While Oliver focused on the NBA, we see the widest variation in style of play in the college game. This is one of the big reasons I love the college game so much. There are more than 350 Division I college teams and some of them are trying some crazy stuff! To assess teams and players against each other, we have to consider the tempo and number of opportunities each player has each game.

In this section next week, we will take a look at one of the key stats that tells us more meaningful information than the number of points per game or field goal percentage. In part, I hope to learn more about these stats each week and hope you enjoy reading this primer on the numbers side of the game.

The Mixtape

The Field of 68 team puts out lots of great content each week. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights.

• Mac McClung of Texas Tech and Deuce McBride of West Virginia had an epic duel of top-tier names on Monday night. They are both very good at basketball, I might add. Seriously, can you not imagine a script writer penning a comedy set in the 1970’s revolving around basketball and these are the types of names he gave to side characters? I just looked up the cast of Will Ferrell’s Semi-Pro just to double-check one of the characters wasn’t named Mac or Deuce. Anyway, they had an intense battle on Monday night with Deuce and the Mountaineers (also, great band name) coming out on top. If you don’t have the time to rewatch the game, watch Rob Dauster and Jeff Goodman break down the action.

• For a deep dive with Mac McClung, check out the full interview he gave toDemetris and a Splash of Fanta (yes, that is the name of the podcast). You get a look behind McClung’s Rocky-esque training routines growing up, his move from Georgetown to Texas Tech, and life in Lubbock.

• On the Beale Street Bullies podcast, Antonio Anderson and Jeff Goodman break down the Memphis victory over Wichita State last week and take a look at the progress of Penny Hardaway’s young Tigers squad. Anderson shares stories of his time playing for John Calipari at Memphis, including his time as a teammate with Derrick Rose on the team that we all remember going to the Final Four (although the record books say otherwise).

• Check out this important conversation between Shammond Wiliams and King Rice on the Carolina Conversation podcast. The two talk about opportunities for Black coaches and cover the struggles Rice has faced making his way in the sport he loves.

Weekend Primer

Heading into the weekend, we take a look at the big matchups on the schedule.

The headliner for the final weekend of January is the annual SEC-Big 12 Challenge. There are a number of top-flight matchups this year, but my eye is on Auburn vs. Baylor. Freshmen Sharife Cooper has been a revelation for Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers. Rob and Jeff discussed Cooper (and more Mac McClung!) last week and ask if he is going to be a lottery pick in the NBA draft this summer. The young point guard is averaging 22.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 8.7 assists in his 6 games since the NCAA finally cleared him for competition. Now that the NCAA has moved out of the way, Cooper faces his second-toughest opponent in National Player of the Year candidate Jared Butler and the Baylor Bears. It’s youth versus experience, the buttoned up Scott Drew versus the outspoken Bruce Pearl, Texas versus Alabama. What more could you want to see in a Saturday afternoon game?

• Friday:

  • Saint Louis vs. Richmond (6:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2)

  • Iowa vs. Illinois (9:00 p.m. EST on FS1)

• Saturday:

  • Alabama vs. Oklahoma (12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2)

  • Clemson vs. Duke (12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

  • Texas Tech vs. LSU (2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2)

  • Florida vs. West Virginia (2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

  • Auburn vs. Baylor (4:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

  • Kansas vs. Tennessee (6:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

  • Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST on ACC Network)

  • Texas vs. Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

• Sunday:

  • Loyola-Chicago vs. Missouri State (3:00 p.m. Eastern on CBSSN)

  • Sam Houston State vs. Stephan F. Austin (4:00 p.m. EST on ESPNU)