Boiling point

The latest from The Field of 68 Premium focuses on the team with the biggest literal advantage in the tournament. What's stopping Purdue and center Zach Edey, the probable Player of the Year, from making a run in the NCAA Tournament?

This exclusive content for paid subscribers is written by Will Warren, who writes a marvelous college hoops newsletter, Stats By Will. (Sign up for it here.)

The BIG question: Just how good is Purdue?

The most popular NCAA Tournament 1 seed to fade this year features the National Player of the Year. I can’t imagine that happens often. However, Purdue’s been an unusual team all season. In a sport that’s going small, they center everything around a literal giant in the paint. They started out unranked, then surged to No. 1 in the AP Poll for a total of eight weeks. It seemed like teams had finally figured them out in Big Ten play, then they won the Big Ten Tournament.

So. What gives? What do people have against Purdue?

It certainly dug its own hole by losing four of its final eight regular season games. Even the recovery in the conference tournament could be discounted somewhat, as Purdue’s toughest opponent by KenPom ranking was Rutgers, a team that missed the NCAA Tournament. Of Purdue’s seven worst defensive efficiency performances, five have come in the last six weeks. Plus, their freshmen guards have struggled immensely with ball pressure, and many nights, they become far too reliant on Zach Edey.

All of this has culminated in a populace that largely wants nothing to do with them. Per ESPN, just 46% of users selected Purdue to make the Elite Eight, lower than every 2 seed in the field. They’re easily the least-popular 1 seed title pick. This is despite playing in a region where they’ve drawn the weakest 2 and 3 seeds (per KenPom) in the field if they make the Elite Eight.

This will be a simple article: a case for Purdue and a case against them. And we’ll keep our sights a little lighter than it may suggest: the ways a 1 seed makes good on their 24% chance (again, per KenPom) to make the Final Four, along with how the 76% chance they don’t comes true.

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