Lessons from the strange 🏀 season

A week and a half into January, we're now entering the thick of conference play where teams can no longer hide their warts. Our sample size is large enough that overreactions might not be overreactions anymore.

Still, with nine weeks until Selection Sunday, teams have plenty of time to change — for better or worse. In what's been a parity-ridden season, let's see which programs among the Power 5 hope to maintain their level of play versus which ones have work to do.

And tonight, when you're looking at the light slate and thinking you'll watch TCU and Georgia play for the title tonight, come hang with the Field of 12.

1. Clemson stakes its ACC claim. Can it hold on?

After the first weekend of 2023, things are still unclear. Consider this: five squads from the preseason Top 10 almost certainly won't be ranked in this week's AP poll. What's more, we'll likely be on our fourth No. 1 later today — and by my count, six teams have a case for it: Houston, Kansas, Tennessee, UConn, Alabama and Purdue.

Conference play, in particular, has yielded strange results (it'll be a theme throughout the Daily). But no league has been more confounding than the ACC.

Just look at the standings. At 5-0, Clemson is the only unbeaten team in league play. Read that again — we're talking basketball, not football. Their start sounded unfathomable even a month ago when the Tigers (13-3 overall) dropped a neutral court game to Loyola Chicago (then 4-5; 6-9 now). And they got dog-walked by the Ramblers, 76-58. But Brad Brownell has overseen a turnaround, thanks to the emergence of two veterans: point guard Chase Hunter and forward Hunter Tyson.

After losing Al-Amir Dawes and Nick Honor, Clemson's biggest question heading into the season was its guard play. But Hunter's proven himself as a capable table-setter and a three-level scorer. For instance, the senior has hit 43.8 percent of his 3-pointers this season, and he looked deadly from mid-range in Saturday's 75-74 win at Pitt.

Then, there's Tyson, who has been a force in the frontcourt. He leads the ACC in defensive rebounding rate and has raised his 3-point percent by almost 10 points (34.7 percent in 2022, 43.0 percent in 2023). Alongside All-ACC forward PJ Hall, Tyson has formed perhaps the ACC's best big-man tandem.

Plus, Clemson has also received solid production from freshman forwards Ian Schieffelin and RJ Godfrey and sophomore big Ben Middlebrooks.

“We’ve gone to a bigger lineup after our Loyola(-Chicago) loss, and I think it’s been helpful for us defensively,” Brownell said after the Pitt win. “It’s made us physically stronger and better at rebounding and around the rim. And I think our guys are mature enough to understand how we’re being played and look to make the right play.”

Now, to stay at the top of the league, Clemson must fend off veteran-laden Virginia and resurgent North Carolina (which may have found something with its three-guard lineup.) But the biggest advantage for the Tigers in the standings? Three of its five wins have come away from Littlejohn Coliseum. Their home schedule sets up nicely for a few more quality wins (Duke on Jan. 14 and Miami on Feb. 4).

2. Burn those Big 12 preseason polls

Not to be outdone by the ACC, the Big 12 has also seen a couple of curveballs. In a loaded weekend slate, the two most entertaining games featured the league's most surprising teams: Iowa State and Kansas State.

In October, few viewed these two as anything more than cellar-dwellers. The conference's media poll pegged the Cyclones at eighth and the Wildcats at 10th. But fast forward to January, and they sit atop the standings alongside Kansas.

With sterling 3-0 starts, how high can these two programs climb?

We'll start with Iowa State and its top-15 defense. The Cyclones are at their best when they extend their pressure, utilize run-and-jumps and trap ball screens. In three conference games, they have forced 19 turnovers against Baylor, 13 against Oklahoma, and 18 against TCU in Saturday's 69-67 win. (Unsurprisingly, ISU ranks first in the country in defensive turnover rate). The elite defense dramatically raises the Cyclones' floor and gives them a chance in every game.

Perhaps most remarkably, though, TJ Otzelberger has flipped a new roster into a tournament-caliber team for a second straight season. The coach's eye for talent is undeniable, as he does a terrific job of finding under-the-radar players who match his scheme.

Freshman point guard Tamin Lipsey is the latest beneficiary. Despite his unheralded, 3-star pedigree, Lipsey proved he could handle 25-plus minutes a night from Day 1. He ranks 47th nationally in steal rate, and his playmaking and feel for the game belie his youth.

Lipsey's skill set has stabilized an Iowa State offense that tended to stagnate a season ago. He has been the perfect fit alongside wings Caleb Grill and Gabe Kalscheur, who have shot much better than they did last year. (Kalscheur hit the game-winning 3 against the Horned Frogs off of a Lipsey assist.)

Kansas State, on the other hand, has made hay with its dynamic offense. Just check its last two games: After scoring 116 points at Texas on Tuesday, it poured 97 on Baylor in Saturday's narrow victory. Credit floor general Markquis Nowell for the two offensive eruptions. The super-senior is playing like the best point guard in the country, showcasing lights-out shooting, crafty passing and a penchant for getting to the charity stripe.

Senior wing Keyontae Johnson functions as the ideal complement to Nowell. The 6-6 tank has produced at a hyper-efficient level, converting 69.4 percent of his shots at the rim and 41.7 percent of his 3-point attempts. Combine this duo with a creative coach in Jerome Tang, and the offense should keep ascending.

Now, the Big 12 is an unpredictable and unrelenting gauntlet. Every team ranks in the top 41 on KenPom, and the league's round-robin schedule means there are no easy games. Fortunes can turn quickly, leaving programs on the outside looking in (the Cyclones learned this last year after their 12-0 run through the nonconference).

However, the hot starts by Iowa State and Kansas State don't seem fluky — the former's defense and the latter's offense should sustain their impressive results.

3. Big Ten mayhem

And who knows what to make of the Big Ten? Just when I think I have a feel for this conference, something wonky happens that shifts my perspective.

Sunday provided the latest examples.

Iowa, which appeared cadaverous a week ago, stormed into the RAC Jersey Mike's Arena and left with a 76-65 victory — its second win in four days. Before this mini-streak, the Hawkeyes had hit just 24.4 percent from distance during a three-game skid. That's not a recipe for success for any team, much less one coached by Fran McCaffery.

But Iowa (10-6, 2-3 in Big Ten) flipped the script, thanks in part to the development of Payton Sandfort. After missing his first 19 shot attempts in Big Ten play, the sophomore wing has gone 10-of-17 from the field (5-of-9 from 3) in the past two games.

"[Sandfort has] been going through a lot, but that’s why you work hard every day and that’s why he’s been in the gym 24/7," Iowa big man Filip Rebraca said after the Rutgers win. "Basketball gods work in mysterious and funny ways, you know. Tonight they showed they’re watching all the time, and how much work you put in.”

If these performances become the norm for Sandfort, Iowa can get right back into the NCAA Tournament picture.

Similarly, Maryland (11-5, 2-3)reversed its luck with an impressive 80-73 win over Ohio State (10-5, 2-2). Jahmir Young shot 15 free throws and looked like the physical, rim-attacking guard who shined in the nonconference. Considering he attempted just four foul shots combined in the Terps' blowout losses to Michigan and Rutgers, his performance yesterday came as a welcome sight to Maryland fans. The next step will be getting Donta Scott back on track. The senior forward hasn't scored more than 12 points in a game since Nov. 29.

Finally, it might be time to start talking about ... at-large Northwestern? Yesterday's 84-83 win over Indiana in Assembly Hall moved the Wildcats to 12-3 overall and 3-1 in the conference — quite the rebound from Chris Collins, whose roster looked bleak upon the transfers of Pete Nance and Ryan Young.

Regardless, Northwestern fans (all eight of them) might feel reluctant to get their hopes up. Remember, the Wildcats won their first three Big Ten games in 2021 before limping to a 6-13 finish. But this year's team could be different, mainly because of a new name on Collins' bench.

Assistant coach Chris Lowery joined the Northwestern staff this offseason, and his hire has yielded immediate returns on defense. Under his tutelage, the 'Cats play much more aggressively and form a wall around the basket. Junior big man Matthew Nicholson has transformed into a fearsome rim protection, while Chase Audige has developed maniacal tendencies on the perimeter (13th nationally in steal rate.)

Purdue (15-1, 4-1 in Big Ten) still sits in the catbird seat a half-game ahead of Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten standings. But Sunday's results indicate that this league is more wide open than any other power conference.

4. Arizon'd out

If you're one of the proud few with access to the Pac-12 Network, you probably saw Arizona get worked by Washington State in Tuscon. The Cougars broke open an eight-point lead in the first half that ballooned to 18 in the second; the Wildcats never made a run and ultimately lost 74-61.

Now, keep in mind Arizona is 14-2; panic seems premature. However, Saturday became the latest data point in a *slightly* concerning trend: After scoring over one point per possession in 12 of its first 13 games (and over 1.2 in seven of those contests), the Cats have failed to eclipse that number in their past three contests.

Offense is everything for this Arizona squad — it vanquishes foes with its frenetic pace, selfless ball movement, inside-out scoring and timely 3-pointers. But Washington State limited the Wildcats' possessions, protected the rim, kept them out of transition and was strong on the contest.

Did the Cougars (7-10, 2-4 in Pac-12) provide the rest of the Pac-12 with a blueprint to beat Arizona? Hear the AFTER DARK crew weigh in.

To be sure, executing Washington State's formula is easier said than done. But Arizona must prepare for its opponents' best attempts. If an inferior team catches them lacking again, the repercussions could seriously affect the Wildcats' NCAA Tournament seeding.

With the dearth of opportunities for quality wins in the Pac-12, their margin for error is razor-thin if they want to land on the 1 or 2-line.

5. Two shellackings in the SEC, plus other results

Meanwhile, the SEC looks like a two-team race between Tennessee and Alabama.

On Saturday, the Vols (13-2, 3-0 in SEC) traveled to Columbia and limited South Carolina to .65 points per possession. Even more astonishingly, they held projected lottery pick GG Jackson to zero points in the 85-42 win.

These exploits are starting to feel routine for the nation's No. 1 defense. The Vols' starters move in concert, and their depth ensures minimal drop-off when Rick Barnes turns to his bench. They bring two of the conference's best defenders off the pine in Josiah-Jordan James and Jonas Aidoo!

Turning to Tuscaloosa, Bama (13-2, 3-0) continued its stellar season by running Kentucky out of the gym on Saturday. Brandon Miller, Mark Sears and Jahvon Quinerly took turns toying with the 'Cats en route to a 78-52 victory.

Beyond their scoring, the Tide did an outstanding job neutralizing Oscar Tshiebwe. The reigning NPOY went 1-for-7 from the field and was held to single-digit rebounds for just the fifth time in his Kentucky career. Not all that surprising considering Alabama's prowess on the glass. If there's an inside track to the regular-season crown, the Vols might have it. These two only play once this season, and it's in Knoxville.

Other notable results from the weekend:

Missouri 85, Vanderbilt 82Vanderbilt (8-7, 1-1 in SEC) hung around for all 40 minutes, leading early, then using a 13-1 run in the second half to pull ahead. However, Missouri (13-2, 2-1) used big-time buckets from D'Moi Hodge and DeAndre Gholston, along with a season-high 27 made free throws to seal the game.

Texas 56, Oklahoma State 46In its first game after officially splitting from Chris Beard, Texas had no problem handling Oklahoma State on the road. The Longhorns (13-2, 2-1 in Big 12) returned to form defensively, turning the 'Pokes (9-6, 1-2) over 18 times.

Auburn 72, Arkansas 59Auburn (12-3, 2-1 in SEC) desperately needed a quality win and got one, thanks mostly to its defense. Bruce Pearl deployed a zone and dared the Razorbacks (12-3, 1-2) to shoot. Arkansas couldn't make him pay, as it hit just 2-of-16 from beyond the arc.

NC State 73, Virginia Tech 69The Pack's guard trio of Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner and Casey Morsell continues to dominate, this time scoring a combined 58 points. Behind those three, NC State (13-4) moved to 3-3 in the conference and dealt Virginia Tech (11-5, 1-4) — who is still without Hunter Cattoor — its fourth straight loss.

Michigan State 59, Michigan 53This one was a rock fight. The two rivals combined to shoot 36 percent from the field, but the Spartans (11-4, 3-1 in Big Ten) received enough plays from AJ Hoggard (15 points, 6 assists) to hold on. Michigan State has won six in a row while Michigan (9-6, 3-1) goes back to the drawing board.

Gonzaga 81, Santa Clara 76The Zags (14-3, 3-0 in WCC) found themselves in a second straight close contest. The Broncos (14-5, 2-2) used their hard-nosed defense to force Gonzaga into tough shots and disrupted Drew Timme about as well as they could. (He still finished with 20.) Sophomore point guard Nolan Hickman made the difference, turning in his best game in a Gonzaga uniform. His 20 points and four made 3s (including a huge go-ahead bucket) propelled Gonzaga to W.

Duke 65, Boston College 64So close for the Eagles, who juuuuust missed out on a massive upset. BC (8-8, 2-3 in ACC) held Duke without a field goal for over nine minutes in the second half and clung to a one-point lead with 30 seconds to go. However, it couldn't keep from fouling Kyle Filipowski on an offensive rebound, who iced the game for the Devils (12-4, 3-2) at the line.

Florida 82, Georgia 75Mike White couldn't pull off the upset in his return to Gainesville, despite a 23-10 start. The Gators (8-7, 1-2 in SEC) benefited from a vintage defensive performance from Colin Castleton, who registered seven blocks. Still, Georgia (11-4, 1-1) doesn't look like the doormat many thought it would be.

Quinnipiac 81, Iona 58A shocker in the MAAC! Baker Dunleavy and the Bobcats (12-5, 3-3) trounced Rick Pitino's Gaels (11-5, 4-1), leading by as many as 32 in the home contest. Quinnipiac got whatever it wanted in the paint and now ranks as the league's second-best offense.

Indiana State 80, UIC 60Indiana State (13-4, 6-0 in MVC) is just blitzing Mo Valley teams with their potent offense; they now are 6-0 in conference play for the first time since Larry Bird suited up for the Sycamores in 1978-79.

Oral Roberts 74, UMKC 71Does it feel like 2021? Oral Roberts (13-3, 4-0 in Summit) defeated UMKC (6-11, 2-2) on a Max Abmas buzzer-beater from hafcourt.

Kansas 76, West Virginia 62Gradey Dick scored a team-high 16 points as the Jayhawks (14-1, 3-0 in Big 12) ran away from the Mountaineers (10-5, 0-3) for their second straight Big 12 road win. There's a good chance Kansas is ranked No. 1 later today unless ...

Houston 72, Cincinnati 59Voters think the Cougars (16-1, 4-0 in AAC) should re-claim the top spot. They've won seven straight since their only loss of the season (as No. 1, no less), six of which by double figures. Cincy (11-6, 2-2) was close for the first 12 minutes, but couldn't hold court.

UConn 69, Creighton 60Could the Huskies (15-2, 4-2 in Big East) be back atop the polls after handling the Bluejays (9-7, 3-2)? Adama Sanogo made his case for it, scoring 26 points and grabbing nine boards. Sounds like he was a little motivated to showcase his stuff against Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Illinois 79, Wisconsin 69A day after freshman point guard Skyy Clark left the team, the Illini (10-5, 1-3 in Big Ten) picked up their first conference win behind some impressive offensive balance (four players hit double-figures, led by Terrence Shannon's 24) against the depleted Badgers (11-3, 3-1), who didn't have Tyler Wahl for this one.

Providence 83, St. John's 80The Friars (14-3, 6-0 in Big East) remained atop the conference, but it was closer than expected at home against the Red Storm (11-6, 1-5). Noah Locke's offensive outburst — a season-high 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting — was perfectly timed.

Kent State 69, Miami (OH) 66The Golden Flashes (12-3, 2-0 in MAC) got 31 points from Sincere Carry as they won their sixth straight and set up a Tuesday showdown with Toledo that'll be quite the contrasting styles.

Team of the week: Iowa Hawkeyes

One week can make a world of difference. The Hawkeyes battled back from a 21-point deficit at home to Indiana, then led from wire to wire in their aforementioned Rutgers win. Kris Murray is completely healthy and getting steady contributions from his supporting cast.

Player of the week: Markquis Nowell, Kansas State

What more can we say about Nowell? You saw the stat about him, Ja and Trae Young, correct? Just sit back and enjoy some highlights from the 5-8 phenom.

Weekend warrior: Micah Handlogten, Marshall

The Sun Belt showcases some delightfully entertaining teams, one of which is a Marshall squad that ranks top 90 on KenPom. In its Saturday win over Coastal Carolina, the 7-1 freshman Handlogten was the star of the show. Few — if any — players in the conference can match his blend of size and athleticism. He put up a 20-point, 19-rebound, 5-block stat line.

Better Call Jamal

After a 14-0 start, New Mexico finds itself on a two-game losing streak. Tonight, it hopes to end the slide when Oral Roberts comes to town. But it won't be easy. As highlighted in the game recaps, Max Abmas is operating at his peak powers and won't be intimidated by the raucous crowd at the Pit. Luckily for the Lobos, they have an electric guard of their own: Jamal Mashburn Jr. who, alongside backcourt mate Jaelen House, can carry the team to a W. (9 pm ET, Mountain West Network)

That's most notable hoops game of the night. Only 14 are on the slate because of TCU-Georgia. And don't forget to come hang with the Field of 12 during the game.

'John Calipari is in serious trouble'

Kentucky's now 10-5 overall and 1-2 in the SEC after a 26-point loss to Alabama. What the heck is going on in Lexington? Rob Dauster, Tyler Hansbrough and LaVall Jordan discuss what's ailing the 'Cats and if there's any hope of Kentucky matching that preseason hype.

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Links to click as you research Glass Onion Easter eggs

• Arkansas' Nick Smith will miss the rest of January with a knee injury.

• Illinois point guard Skyy Clark announced his departure from the program Friday afternoon.

• Providence landed 4-star guard Kayvaun Mulready.

• D-III Concordia University had five players hospitalized after a practice. The head coach has been "temporarily removed" due to the incident.

• Chants of "NIT" and "Cal to Texas" rang over Kentucky in its blowout loss to Alabama.

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