Brackets & Bets

As you might expect, we write most, if not all of The Daily the day before we publish. Tuesday night, as updates of various exhibitions roll through Twitter, it seemed like re-doing the top headline with a Michigan State angle would be needed.

But we'll pause on that panic (for now) and let the fans focus on what's ahead for Sparty — which might mean Jaden Akins on the court by Monday.

Onto the rest of the Daily, including a couple of special guests for today.

1. Bracket insights

Few things are core to college basketball like a bracket. It's recognized by casual and hard-core fans (where's my team?) as the perfect way to organize a tournament, especially when it fits on a single sheet of paper one might print out.

So, of course The Almanac has a bracket. But showing the whole thing wouldn't be as interesting as a deep dive into one specific region. That's where I bring in our first special guest of the day, Lukas Harkins, who did bracket projections for The Almanac.

Q: This would be Baylor's third-consecutive tournament as a No. 1 seed, which is rarified air for any program. But what are the chances the Big 12 grabs two No. 1 seeds like it did in 2022?

Lukas Harkins: Definitely a possibility. You could make an argument for either Kansas or Baylor — or both — on the No. 1 line in the preseason. Both have that type of potential. There is precedent for a conference to achieve two No. 1 seeds in the same year, and the Big 12 has that type of firepower this year. Baylor and Kansas are both going to play tremendous intra-conference schedules, of course, but they also both have strong non-conference resume-boosters. Baylor faces Virginia and Gonzaga, while Kansas draws Duke and Indiana. It's extremely early to talk about bracketology, but if the Big 12 lives up to preseason expectations, it could get two No. 1 seeds, sure.

Q: Indiana is the Almanac's pick to win the Big 12, but Illinois grabbed the four-seed and the Hoosiers are a five. That a reflection of Indiana's ceiling or just the overall state of the Big Ten?

Harkins: Indiana and Illinois are really close in the preseason, in my opinion. The Hoosiers obviously have a ton of talent returning, plus the arrival of Jalen Hood-Schifino will make them all the more dangerous. It just feels like a big jump to make from a No. 12 seed last year into the protected seeds. I know Illinois lost a ton this offseason, but they've also earned a top 4 seed in back-to-back seasons. That recent history just gave them the preseason edge for me.

Q: Out of this region, what's the can't miss game?

Harkins: Only accounting for first-round matchups, Villanova vs. Colgate would be a very fun 3-point battle. Both teams run systems predicated on efficient offense with excellent 3-point shooting ability. Colgate gave Wisconsin a run for its money last season, and brings back some talented pieces. Regardless of seed acquired, Kyle Neptune will also be out to prove that he can continue Villanova's status as a powerhouse as the program's new head coach. It would be a 3-point barrage of a game. Looking further into "potential matchups," pitting Miami's guard-oriented, small-ball attack against the Oscar Tshiebwe-led Kentucky team would be a fun contrast.

Q: Which team is most likely to end up with a better seed in March? And which one could be worse? Don't stick only to the South if needed.

Harkins: Looking at my projected bracket for the Almanac (which had heavy influence from the rankings within the magazine, which were not all done by me), Iowa is perhaps the team that I am highest on exceeding their preseason placement. The Almanac picked the Hawkeyes fifth in the Big Ten, and I accordingly slotted them as a No. 8 seed. Looking back, that feels a bit low on my end. The Hawkeyes have earned or were projected to earn a top 6 seed in each of the past three seasons. Neither Luka Garza nor Keegan Murray is walking through the door, but Fran McCaffery has proven that he can engineer an elite offense. Kris Murray should give them a star and there is a lot to like around him.

I really, really like San Diego State this year. Matt Bradley is a stud, Darrion Trammell could translate extremely well, and Jaeden LeDee has earned rave reviews. Still, a top 4 seed is a really tough ask. The Mountain West has only earned a top 4 seed once since 2015 (the 2020 SDSU team that had the tournament canceled), and the league will be quite competitive at the top. Teams like Wyoming, Utah State, Boise State and Colorado State are plenty talented to take games from the Aztecs. San Diego State will likely be punished more than the best power conference teams for each loss that it suffers. The Aztecs are a safe bet to earn a good seed, but landing among the top 16 is really tough for a non-power conference team, especially with how many other solid teams are near the top of the MWC.

You can follow Lukas on Twitter, and read more of his analysis at Heat Check CBB and his Butler-specific coverage here.

2. Six bets better than a Powerball ticket

Greg Waddell has been focused on college football the last eight weeks, which is why he's not writing in his usual Wednesday spot for the Daily. But we brought him in for a topic that's near and dear to him: Betting. Take it away, Greg!

It's that time of year folks! We are just weeks away from telling our loved ones in unison, "you can go to bed, babe, I'm gonna stay up a bit longer" as Santa Clara-Georgia Southern tips off at 10 pm ET on a Thursday night. Any good (or bad) bettor knows the feeling — college basketball is a seven-day-a-week marathon. Before the action starts next week, here are some Futures bets that should grab your attention before it's too late.*odds provided by our friends at BetRivers*

Three National Championship bets worth placing:

Houston (+1100) — Kelvin Sampson's Cougar program has consistently been a KenPom darling and one of the toughest outs in March. But this year he has arguably the most talented roster of his tenure. Marcus Sasser's return paired with Jarace Walker in the frontcourt gives Houston star power on the perimeter and in the paint. They're my favorite of the favorites.

Tennessee (+2000) — Rick Barnes-in-March caveat here, but the bells are ringing that Tennessee might be a bit better than expected. The Vols blew out Gonzaga in an exhibition game last week, led by Zakai Zeigler and Indiana State transfer Tyreke Key. There may be some value in betting that the Vols are for real before the books do.

Creighton (+3000) — Sorry, Jim Root. Creighton is one of the more polarizing teams heading into this season, returning a monstrous sophomore class and adding one of the best transfers in the sport in Baylor Scheierman. The last time we saw Creighton in March, they had the eventual National Champion Kansas Jayhawks on the ropes — without Ryan Nembhard and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Valued as the 12th most likely team to win the title, I believe that's too low for a team I expect to remain in the top 10 of the polls from start to finish.

Three Conference Winner bets worth placing:

Baylor to win the Big 12 (+250) — It's never the smartest move betting against Kansas in this conference, but with so many key pieces departing for Bill Self's team, I'm ready to take a stab at a resurgent year from Baylor. Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer may be the best guard trio in the country, and it won't surprise me if the Big 12 runs through Waco.

Creighton to win the Big East (+160) — See above for my love of Creighton. But if you can't get yourself ALL the way there, you should at least be able to talk yourself into them winning the Big East. With Villanova's injury concerns, and a new coach manning the sidelines, this is Creighton's league. As long as Ed Cooley doesn't "get lucky" again.

Iowa to win the Big Ten (+500) — Please join me in calling this conference The Little Ten this year. With a lack of true national contenders, the only thing Big about this conference this year will be Zach Edey and Hunter Dickinson. Because of this, expect a wide-open title race, and one team worth betting on is the Iowa Hawkeyes, who have the best NBA prospect in the league in Kris Murray. We can all fade the Hawkeyes come the third week of March but should tail them all season up until then.

You can find Greg on Twitter, or as a Field of 12 host, or over at Sleepers Media.

3. Life as a Houston point guard

Jamal Shead was a revelation for Houston last season, stepping in as the starting point guard when injuries sidelined backcourt starters Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark. The 6-1 junior is a bulldog on defense, hounding opposing guards, and the table-setter on offense.

But it wasn't always this way.

In the first of a two-part essay for GoCoogs.com, Shead writes about life as a point guard for Kelvin Sampson, which is both illuminating in its detail and level of communication between Sampson and Shead — and unsurprising in the sheer amount of work. From his essay:

That's just for starters. As a freshman, Shead learned a valuable lesson about ball security and being a teammate, which you can read in the rest of the essay here.

4. Wolverines wrangle Washington

A few months after de-committing from Ohio State, George Washington III decided to stay in the Big Ten.

The 4-star guard chose the Wolverines over Wake Forest and gives them their second 4-star player, joining big man Papa Kante, who committed last week. The 6-2 Washington told 247 Sports that "the recruitment process after decommitting was kind of a roller coaster," but he is glad to be with Michigan.

The added wrinkle to Washington heading to Ann Arbor? It probably closes the door on Bronny James considering the Wolverines. As this Dana O'Neil story explains, that was always a long shot (college itself may be a long shot), as the suitors for Bronny are very few for various reasons, mostly unrelated to his play. But with another lead guard already at Michigan, it effectively crosses them off the list.

Also in recruiting news:

• Fordham added a 3-star guard in 2023 prospect Jahmere Tripp.

• Seattle U picked up Malek Gomma, a 2023 power forward.

• SIU Edwardsville will add JUCO guard Ethan Yancy.

• Chris Arias, a 6-6 wing in the class of 2024, is headed to Jacksonville.

5. Kansas, New Mexico remember Gethro Muscadin

Former Kansas and New Mexico player Gethro Muscadin died late Monday after injuries sustained in a single-car crash last December. He was 22.

Muscadin, a 6-10 center, played in 11 games for Kansas during the 2020-21 season before transferring transferring to New Mexico, where he started nine of 12 games. He left the program in December.

Both programs honored Muscadin on Tuesday. Kansas coach Bill Self announced the news and tweeted it on Tuesday, saying "Although only here one year, Gethro was loved and liked by all and will always be remembered as a Jayhawk. We wish his family and loved ones the best going through this most difficult time."

Links as you buy those Powerball tickets.

• Eric Gaines looks quite explosive in videos from UAB's scrimmage with Auburn and exhibition with Mississippi College.

• Bill Walton is NOT happy about UCLA's decision to leave the Pac-12.

• This Seth Davis piece on Cal basketball is one sliding door after another.

• A Denver player — who can't earn NIL money — is brokering deals for his teammates.

• Daimion Collins' dad died on Tuesday. We're thinking about him and his family.

THE DTF PODCAST

Larger than life

Sure, Purdue's backcourt has question marks. But its frontcourt — led by 7-4 Zach Edey — might be the best in the nation and is the main reason why the Boilermakers could contend for a Big Ten title.

Especially if you ask Robbie Hummel. Watch him explain.

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