Predictions Are Hard

February 25, 2021

Tipoff

Never bet money you cannot afford to lose. I leave the Best Bets to Rob for that. Earlier this week, I revealed my Blue Blood Contenders vs. Pretenders right here in the newsletter. I confidently proclaimed Kansas and North Carolina were legit while Michigan State was toast. How long did those cocksure statements hold up? Well, here we are on Thursday and the prognostications are in a proverbial puddle somewhere outside of the NCAA headquarters. As Spring Training is underway in sunny climates, I’ll use a little baseball lingo. How did I strike out?

On Wednesday night, Kansas stepped up to the plate at Texas and played the Longhorns tight, losing in overtime, 72-75. Now the Jayhawks have one regular season game remaining, a home matchup against undefeated Baylor. Gulp. While KU has struggled to score, head coach Bill Self has installed a defense-first approach that unfortunately fell victim to a quick whistle and 31 free throw attempts for Texas. The advanced stats looked good for Kansas outside of the free throw discrepancy. I’ll give myself a pass on that one; Kansas is still a tournament team. Foul ball, strike one.

Michigan State, on the other hand, had a surprising turnaround on Tuesday night. Sparty is in the midst of a murderous schedule of 7 games over 2 weeks with matchups against Ohio State, Maryland, a rematch against Indiana, and two against Michigan to close out the regular season. I assumed that hosting Illinois and National Player of the Year candidate Ayo Dosunmu on Tuesday night would be the first of many road bumps. The Illini were the ones with tire tracks as MSU used a small lineup to cause havoc for the visiting team. Swing and a miss on the curveball.

The final plate appearance came Wednesday night. I had declared North Carolina safe and sound for the NCAA Tournament. In their attempt to fill out their schedule that had been left barren by COVID cancellations, UNC invited Marquette to the Dean Dome. The 10-12 Eagles, toiling away at the bottom of the Big East, proceeded to upset the home team and put a serious blot on the Tar Heels’ tournament resume. Strike three.

This is why I do not gamble. I hope you enjoyed this mid-week recap at the very least. Play ball!

Conference Tracker

It’s Championship Season! Let’s take a look at conference tournament action and what lies ahead.

  • Horizon League. Tonight is the night! The first postseason game of the year begins at 7:00 p.m. as the first round of the Horizon League tournament tips off. Following this round, the winning teams will be re-seeded and travel to the top 4-seeds to play the second round on Tuesday night. The winners of the second round will travel to Indianapolis the following week for the conference tournament semifinal and final games. The games on Thursday, February 25th are as follows, all broadcast on ESPN+:

    • #12 Robert Morris vs. #5 Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)

    • #9 IUPUI vs. #8 UW Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)

    • #10 Fort Wayne vs. #7 Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)

    • #11 UIC vs. #6 Youngstown State (8:00 p.m. EST)

  • America East. You remember UMBC, right? That’s the team that famously knocked out Virginia as the only 16-seed to upset a 1-seed in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. It was a big deal. The Terriers are back this year and one of the top 2 teams, along with the Vermont Catamounts (great mascots in the American East) that will get an automatic bye to the conference semifinals in March. Maine opted out of the season a week ago, citing COVID concerns, which threw the conference tournament into a bit of a mess. The games begin on Saturday. All games will be on ESPN+.

    • #6 Stony Brook vs. #7 UMass Lowell (Saturday at 1:00 p.m. EST)

    • #9 Binghamton vs. #4 Vermont (Saturday at 2:00 p.m. EST)

    • #8 NJIT vs. #5 UAlbany (Saturday at 5:00 p.m. EST)

    • Stony Brook/UMass Lowell winner vs. #3 UNH (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST)

    • Binghamton/Hartford winner vs NJIT/UAlbany winner (Sunday at 3:00 p.m. EST)

  • Big South. Sliding down the Atlantic Coast like a reverse hurricane, let’s take a look at the Big South Conference. Charleston Southern announced on Tuesday that they will forego the postseason this year, leaving 10 teams to compete for the title. That’s a real shame as Charleston Southern’s Phlandrous Fleming, a first-ballot member of the all-name team, was just getting hot from deep. Alas. Top seed Winthrop will be able to play all games at home as they seek to qualify for their second straight NCAA Tournament. The bottom four remaining teams complete on Saturday for a chance to advance to the quarterfinals on Monday night. All games will be on, you guessed it, ESPN+.

    • #9 USC Upstate vs. #8 High Point (time to be announced)

    • #10 Presbyterian vs. #7 Hampton (time TBA)

For a full breakdown of who is playing when, check this out, via the Bracket Project. (Follow them. Support them. They’re awesome.)

The Mixtape

The Field of 68 team puts out lots of great content each week. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights.

  • HOMETOWN PRIDE! That’s right, we had a Valparaiso, Indiana takeover of the Hummel & Goodman podcast as former Valparaiso Basketball Team (nee Crusaders) head coaches and Indiana legends Homer and Bryce Drew joined Robbie Hummel for a discussion about all things Valpo, including recruiting misses, the famous shot to send Valpo to the Sweet 16 in 1998, and more. If you’re a Region Rat, this is a must-watch interview.

  • Gonzaga assistant coach Tommy Lloyd joined the Bulldog Podcast with Dan Dickau to talk all things Gonzaga Bulldogs and the international scouting that has helped the program rise to its current perch atop college basketball. From French big man Ronny Turiaf to Polish center Przemek Karnowski to Japanese forward Rui Hachimura, the Zags have identified and developed some of the best international players in the college game. Lloyd gives a peak behind the scouting and player development process.

  • The Go Terrapins podcast with former Maryland standout Travis Garrison had special guest join the show, his former teammate DJ Strawberry. DJ talked about his most annoying teammate, Greivis Vasquez, a player that pushed Strawberry to be better and make it to the NBA. Talking about his NBA experience, DJ shares his baptism to the league from none other than Kobe Bryant.

Weekend Primer

Heading into the weekend, we take a look at the big matchups on the schedule.

The schedule on Friday is slim pickings, but there are a pair of games featuring bubble teams. In the B1G, Purdue and Penn State each look to keep tournament hopes alive as the Boilermakers travel to State College, Pennsylvania to face the Nittany Lions. Meanwhile in the Atlantic 10, the Richmond Spiders travel to Saint Louis to face the Billikens.

Saturday has all the action this weekend. The theme of the day might be state rivals. At Noon, Texas travels to Lubbock to face Texas Tech while the Battle of Oklahoma kicks off at 3:00 p.m. Eastern in Norman as the Sooners host the Cowboys. The B1G has a pair of border wars as conference leader Michigan travels south to face the Hoosiers of Indiana in Bloomington. Later that afternoon, Illinois will look to regroup following its loss to Michigan State on Wednesday night by traveling to Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers. As for the SEC, the Razorbacks of Arkansas will host neighbors LSU for a fight of top teams in the conference. I’ve run out of regional rivalries here. The ACC has a pair of intriguing matchups later in the day, however, as FSU looks to wrap up its second consecutive conference regular season title as they play a North Carolina team clinging by a thread to their NCAA Tournament hopes. Later in the evening, two bubble teams in Louisville and the suddenly resurgent Duke Blue Devils will compete to knock each other out of contention. Not to be outdone, the Mountain West has its own matchup to watch between Boise State and San Diego State. The most interesting matchup of the day, though, could be Baylor vs Kansas. The Bears looked very unlike themselves earlier in the week against TCU following a 3-week COVID pause. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are coming off an overtime loss to Texas. Can Kansas right the ship and deliver the first loss of the year to the undefeated Baylor Bears?

Not to be outdone, Sunday has another epic B1G matchup lined up for us. If you enjoyed the big matchup between Michigan and Ohio State last weekend, the game on Sunday between host Ohio State and visiting Iowa promises to deliver thrilling basketball. Both teams appear in the KenPom top 3 for adjusted offensive efficiency but far outside the top 50 in adjusted defense. Prepare for points, lots and lots of points.

  • Friday:

    • Purdue vs. Penn State (7:00 p.m. EST on FS1)

    • Richmond vs. Saint Louis (7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

  • Saturday:

    • #3 Michigan vs. Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST on Fox)

    • #14 Texas vs. #17 Texas Tech (12:00 p.m. EST on CBS)

    • #5 Illinois vs. #23 Wisconsin (2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

    • LSU vs. #20 Arkansas (2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2)

    • Oklahoma State vs. #7 Oklahoma (3:00 p.m. on ABC)

    • #11 Florida State vs. North Carolina (4:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)

    • Boise State vs. #22 San Diego State (4:00 p.m. EST on CBSSN)

    • #13 Creighton vs. Xavier (5:00 p.m. EST on Fox)

    • Louisville vs. Duke (6:00 p.m. on ESPN)

    • #2 Baylor vs. #17 Kansas (8:00 p.m. on ESPN)

  • Sunday:

    • #9 Iowa vs. #4 Ohio State (4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS)