Polls, predictions and a Giant Gopher

What nuggets can be gleaned from the AP Top 25, and how does it compare to The Almanac? Plus, a little predictive analytics, recruiting news and more.

Author

Mike Miller
October 18, 2022

If you've got a 10 am meeting today, push it. The Field of 68 is going live from Big East media day and will be joined by a player or coach from every Big East program. It's almost like the season is here! (And yes, that's 10 am ET. Sorry, went a little East Coast bias there.)

Watch the show here.

You can prepare by diving into today's Field of 68 Daily, which goes into all things related to preseason polling, predictive metrics and one big, big recruit to Minnesota.

Let's get to the news.

STARTING FIVE

1. Top takeaways from the AP top 25 (with help from The Almanac)

The preseason No. 1 was a no-brainer for AP college basketball poll voters. North Carolina was locked and ready with an incredible tribute cover to commemorate its place atop the poll released on Monday.

Via UNC Basketball on Twitter

For those who believe in jinxes, the previous version of this SI cover was entering the 1982 season. That turned out pretty well for the Heels. And the rest of the poll was the usual mix of teams found in various preseason predictions, which isn't a huge surprise. When you poll 62 voters, it'll remove the edge cases.

Still, let's dive into some of the more interesting aspects of the poll by comparing it to The Almanac (shameless plug that most of you have read already, but repeating again: it's 1,300 words on every team, interviews with every coach, and much more, all for $20.).

The top three teams are the same, just in a different order. The top 10 is the same, just in a different order (except for Duke). Tennessee and Texas are also in the same spots at 11 and 12.

After that, it's still mostly the same programs except for Virginia (No. 18 in AP; NR in The Almanac), Michigan (No. 22 in AP, NR in Almanac), UConn (No. 22 in the Almanac, NR in AP; call it the Rob Dauster influence) and Florida (No. 25 in Almanac, NR in AP). Have a peek at both below.

Still, it's notable how much higher Indiana — the consensus best team in the Big Ten — is rated by AP voters than the Almanac. (The Hoosiers' shooting is a concern.) And one wonders why AP voters might not give the same favor to San Diego State, which features an even better defense, returns everyone of note and also has some offensive question marks. Some other AP Poll facts to note:

2. OK, but what about the machines?

Here's where the preseason predictions get more interesting: The predictive analytics rankings are also out.

Below are shots from the Top 30 from Kenpom.com, Barttorvik.com and Evanmiya.com, the three sites I use the most. (Your mileage may vary.) It's mostly the same teams as The Almanac and the AP, but with some notable differences.

Take a bow, Tennessee.

The Vols are a consensus Top 5 team thanks to what's sure to be a stingy defense. That's not a surprise given where Rick Barnes' program has finished in defensive efficiency the last two seasons, and all three sites expect more of the same for Tennessee. (Cue Almanac plug for a deeper explanation.)

Creighton, perhaps predictably, is not as beloved by analytics as the voters. The Bluejays were outside the top 50 all last season, and the addition of Baylor Scheierman wasn't enough to sway the metrics. They peak at 22.

Those same metrics hammered Virginia last year but not this season. KenPom has the Hoos at 5, while they're ahead of Creighton on the other two sites. Returning experience (and a healthy roster) must count for a lot.

Beyond that, the variance among the sites (KenPom rates Virginia higher than UNC, BartTorvik is big on Baylor and EvanMiya is not impressed with Arkansas at 30) is fascinating. Also:

  • Iowa and Michigan State as the Big Ten's top teams (EvanMiya)? That's bold.

  • Texas is the Big 12's best (KenPom), while the league also boasts seven of its members in the top 30. Also bold.

  • West Virginia is No 30 in BartTorvik. That may be the boldest of all given how many new faces Bob Huggins has this season.

3. That's a giant Gopher (and a great get)

Dennis Evans is a big prospect, literally — he's 7-1 — and figuratively. And he's as big as it gets for Minnesota.

The 5-star center and top-30 recruit in the class of 2023 is one of the highest-rated prospects in Minnesota's history, behind only Kris Humphries (2003) and Royce White (2009). He chose the Gophers over TCU, Florida State, Kansas and San Diego State (among others), which is a promising sign for where Ben Johnson's program is headed.

"I've built a really good relationship and got to know a good bit about the staff while I was up there visiting," Evans told 247Sports. "I like the fact that they push their guys real hard and that they are willing to help each and every player get better at what they think their weakness is. They have a really open style of play and of course that had a little bit of weight on the decision to go there."

Evans is the second 2023 for Minnesota, joining 4-star guard Cameron Christie.

Also in recruiting news:

4. Making the case for Kam Jones

You'll see plenty of stories coming out of Big East media day about the new coaches, players to watch, etc. (If you want a primer, scroll down for the full Big East preview.)

But this deep dive into Kam Jones' prospects for 2022-23 by Paint Touches is everything I want in preview content. A little hype. Some video snippets. Compelling arguments about Jones' offensive and defensive impact. A crazy graphical snapshot of his 0.0 free throw rate.

(stops, scrolls back up)

Yep, you read that right. Cue Dean Wormer. From the article:

Since 2008, 1,177 players have notched at least 40% of minutes in Big East play and Kam Jones was the one and only to not put up at least 1 free throw in that time. That’s almost unfathomable and something he probably couldn’t replicate if he tried. Only 4 high major players (since ’08) can say that.

Without Darryl and Justin forcing the action, there is a glaring need for someone to take those possessions and get to the hoop, draw a foul, make something happen. Seeing his aggressiveness and hearing the reports from Ryan and others, I think Kam has as good a shot as any to be that guy.

Is Jones the new Markus Howard? Is he even more fearless than Howard? These are the questions I can't wait to have answered this season. Because we all need a little fearlessness. Well, maybe not as much as Marquette does this season, but still.

5. About that first week

Games begin on Nov. 7. But picky fans might not tune in until Nov. 15 when the Champions Classic begins.

Yes, they should there be a better start to the season. But given we haven't gotten any college hoops since early April, there's nothing wrong with a slow burn. And besides, as Rocco Miller points out, this is a fairly high standard to determine a quality game.

I'll live with the early-season matchups. If there's a rout, it just means I'll jump around more and check out more teams than usual. Never a bad thing.

THE FAST BREAK

Links as you prep for the return of (NBA) hoops tonight.

THE DTF PODCAST

Big questions for the Big East

Jay Wright is gone. Sean Miller is back. Creighton is the pick to win the league. Providence re-loaded. There's so much to cover for the Big East, but only so much time.

So stick with John Fanta, Rob Dauster and Terrence Oglesby as they break down what's ahead for the league this season.

Subscribe to The Field of 68 on YouTube here and subscribe here to the DTF podcast.

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