Pac-ing it in

The weekend saw the likely demise of the Pac-12. So what's next for the programs leaving and the ones left behind? We break it down.

Author

Mike Miller
August 07, 2023

On a normal Monday, we’d be running through the plethora of college hoops foreign tour results. The key word there is normal. 

Because it was far from a normal weekend. Especially if you’re a Pac-12 program or fan.

Let's get to it.

1. The day the Pac-12 died

The Pac-12 as we know it was always going to change in 2024. UCLA and USC’s departure to Big Ten ensured that. Sure, the Conference of Champions would look a little different, but its continued existence wasn’t seriously in doubt.

Things can change in a hurry.

Barely a week after Colorado announced it was moving to the Big 12, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah, followed suit, while Oregon and Washington headed to the Big Ten. For those not tallying up realignment moves at home, that’s 16 schools in the Big 12, 18 in the Big Ten — the largest major athletic conference around — and just four in the Pac-12.

Dissolutions aren’t easy, and usually leave tender, raw feelings, especially on one side. The aggrieved party in this case? The one with the rich history.

Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State are trying to figure out what’s next for them. Maybe it’s fitting that the Pac-12 was formed in 1915 with just four teams. Because it sure seems like that’s how it’ll end.

2. Big 12 cements its basketball focus

OK, that was a bit maudlin. Uncertainty about the state of college sports will do that. But it’s not all bad. At least, not on the surface.

Take the Big 12. This is now a massive, glorious basketball conference.

It was already historically good, producing a Final Four team in five of the past seven tournaments, champions in 2021 and 2022, and a seemingly unending amount of Quad 1 games due to the number of teams (all of them) settled in the Top 75 of the NET. When those four programs officially join in August of 2024, it’ll be better than ever.

Its 16 member schools all finished in the top 80 of KenPom in 2022-23. Eight were in the top 30. Not a big enough sample size? How about the last 10 years?

Gone are the days of every Big 12 game serving as a Quad 1 opportunity. But if the schools simply continue their current 10-year averages, it’ll be a league that routinely places double-digit teams in the NCAA Tournament, which is a little absurd. (The Big Ten will be vying for the same. More on that coming up.)

And while adding Colorado, Utah and Arizona State was a solid hoops move, snagging Arizona — one of college basketball’s elite programs, both historically and currently — gives the Big 12 another perennial national title contender.

And from a geographical standpoint, the additions also make sense. Colorado was once in the Big 12, and Utah and the Arizona schools are all in the mountain time zone. From a travel perspective, it’s not even that different for Arizona and ASU compared to what they’d been doing in the Pac-12.

Guess we’ll learn if one can OD on college hoops.

3. This wasn’t about basketball for Big Ten

Oregon and Washington are football schools. Simple as that.

Their additions to the Big Ten will earn them a bigger payday (reportedly about $30 million annually until the current media deal expires in 2029-30; current Big Ten schools receive more than $60 million annually) and will give the league additional footing on the West Coast, meaning UCLA and USC have more travel partners. It also provides them with the chance to stay in their time zone for some games.

But this realignment isn’t a basketball-centric move.

Oregon’s performance under Dana Altman would place it among the Big Ten’s upper echelon — a .696 win percentage in 13 seasons, including seven NCAA tourney berths and a 2017 Final Four appearance — but he’s been on an downward trend the past two seasons, a befuddling trajectory given the talent in Eugene.

As for Washington, Mike Hopkins has made just one NCAA Tournament during his six-year tenure. Moreover, the Huskies have only seven appearances this century, which is also an odd sight given the hoops talent in Seattle.

Maybe it’s good for football. I dunno. We’ll ask the Field of 12 when they start up here in a few weeks. But for hoops … the LA schools will be doing the bulk of the work in the new Big Ten.

4. Prep for an impending Pac-12 player exodus

As realignment news starts to sink in for the Pac-12, expect to see a player exodus among the schools that are still there. It may not be a flood since the moves to other conferences aren’t immediate, but this is almost certainly the start of a series of moves.

Meadows, a 6-2 guard, was a projected starter for the Bears. He could still decide to play for new coach Mark Madsen, given Cal is viewed as a Pac-12 dark horse this season.

But this will be Meadows’ COVID season and he’s already played two seasons at Eastern Washington and two at Portland, both under Shantay Legans. It’s uncertain if Meadows was going to be cleared to play in 2023-24 (given it was his second transfer), so if he couldn’t play until 2024-25, one can understand wanting more clarity around a final season.

More likely, we see a bunch of de-commits from high school players, such as this decision from 3-star 2024 guard Adam Njie. He was set to attend Washington State. Now? He’s seeing what else is out there.

That seems possible from most Wazzu, Oregon State and Cal commits, and maybe even Stanford pledges.

5. So what’s next?

The Pac-12 heard no shortage of eulogies over the weekend (I took my own crack at it above). Hard not to when your conference loses half its membership in a matter of hours, and you’re still without a media rights deal.

Plus, there’s still thought that Cal and Stanford offer some appeal as possible Big Ten additions, mostly because of the academic fit. From a media rights standpoint, neither would bring significant additional value and would just mean more travel for the existing Big Ten schools.

It seems more likely that the Mountain West scoops up Oregon State and Washington State, two schools that fit from an academic and geographic perspective. But say Cal and Stanford also come along. For hoops, it’s mostly a middling outlook, at least if we account for recent history.

(Side note: I gotta send Sweeney a gift basketball for running these numbers.)

Any moves for those four schools will happen soon. Conferences have until August 15 to finalize movement for the 2024-25 academic years. If they wait, that’s a long limbo to be stuck in.

Adding some bite

Dwight Perry’s no stranger to basketball-centric schools, from his time as a player at Kentucky to serving as an assistant at VCU, Furman, and most recently, Wofford. Now that he transitions from associate head coach to the official head coach of the Terriers, how does his POV change? And what does he foresee for Wofford?

Links as you catch up on more summer recruiting news.

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