Time to fill out those brackets

What are the biggest takeaways from the field of 68? What are the must-watch matchups and who are the most dangerous low seeds? We answer those questions and more

Author

Riley Davis
March 13, 2023

It's finally here. Our beloved sport has arrived at the three-week marathon that delivers bliss, heartbreak and everything in between. In 22 days, a champion will be crowned, and we'll be providing analysis every step of the way. 

Quick reminders: In case you missed our six-hour live stream covering all things March Madness, you can tune in here. Join our Bracket Challenge (win $$$) here. And if you'd like exclusive tourney preview content, click here. (No more teaser emails to those who haven't signed up.)

Let's dive in.

1. First look at the Field of 68

Let's start with some initial impressions from the bracket as a whole. Here are four of the most notable trends and storylines. 

Shakeup on Line 1

Maybe 18 Quad 1 wins would have been enough for Kansas. 

Somehow, the Jayhawks missed out on the No. 1 overall seed — that spot belongs to Alabama. Kansas, meanwhile, fell to the third selection on the 1-line, behind Houston and ahead of Purdue.

Now, I'm nitpicking because a top seed is still a top seed. However, if Kansas advances to the Sweet 16, it will play its second-weekend games in Las Vegas instead of Kansas City. That will deflate Jayhawks fans who justifiably feel like their team has the best résumé in the country. Even comparing Kansas to Houston, the Jayhawks edge the Coogs in Q1 victories (17 to 7) and strength of record (1 to 96). 

Nevertheless, the selection committee may have emphasized predictive metrics more than I (and bracketologists) realized. For instance, Houston ranks first on every analytics site and in the NET; Kansas, on the other hand, varies from ninth to twelfth on the same platforms. 

The wild, wild West

Speaking of Kansas' tournament prospects, the West region is absolutely loaded. 

Beyond the Jayhawks, there's UConn on the 4-line — a team with a future NBA first-rounder in Jordan Hawkins, an all-conference big in Adama Sanogo and two members of the all-freshman team in Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban. Oh, and in case you forgot, the Huskies were ranked No. 2 in the country at one point and still slot top-5 on KenPom. Talk about an under-seeded title threat.

UCLA and Gonzaga round out the top four — two teams with veteran cores that have experienced postseason success. In particular, this is the last ride for a pair of All-Americans in Jaime Jaquez and Drew Timme.

In addition to the headliners, Arkansas could spark a run thanks to its pro talent (Nick Smith, Ricky Council IV, Jordan Walsh and Anthony Black), while TCU looms as a dark horse. The Horned Frogs' physicality, dominance on the glass and transition play give them a chance to emerge from this region.

Go (Mountain) West, young man

For the second straight year, the Mountain West Conference received four bids to the tournament. But now the pressure is on the league to do something it hasn't done since 2018 — win a game in the Big Dance.

The good news? Per KenPom, all four teams — San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State and Nevada — are projected to prevail in their first-round matchups.

Atlantic Coast CatastropheSure, North Carolina missed the Big Dance for the first time since 2010 (please don't make me talk about it.) But that's not the only negative headline involving the ACC.

The 2019 NCAA Tournament — one that featured three No. 1 seeds from the ACC — feels like decades ago. Since then, big-name coaches retired, some programs made questionable hires, and the SEC and the Big Ten eclipsed the conference in generating revenue. 

The result is a five-bid league with two participants on the 11-line. The ACC has a ways to go if it wants to climb back into the nation's elite.

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2. Five must-watch matchups

The first Thursday and Friday of the tournament make for the most glorious 48-hour stretch of the year. You can't beat back-to-back days of all-you-can-watch hoops. But if you need a palate cleanser — you know, a walk, a run, a nap or something to give your eyes a break — just make sure you don't miss these games. (All times Eastern)

The Bryce Hopkins Bowl: (6) Kentucky vs. (11) Providence

Think revenge will factor into this one? Providence forward Bryce Hopkins takes on his old team, where he played just six minutes per game. Since leaving Lexington, he has developed into one of the Big East's best players and a matchup nightmare at the 4-spot. Beyond his showdown with Jacob Toppin, keep an eye on the Friars' defense against a Wildcats offense that has been sneakily efficient over the past month. (Friday, 7 pm, CBS)

Burns vs. 'Brenner: (6) Creighton vs. (11) NC State

Two of the country's most unique players — NC State's DJ Burns and Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner — square off in an intriguing clash of styles. The Wolfpack want to run and bomb shots, whereas the Bluejays feel most comfortable grinding out games with their menacing defense. The 7-1 Kalkbrenner is the most imposing terror on that end of the floor, but Burns is a load to guard. At 275 pounds with ballerina-like agility, the super-senior could be single-covered by nary a big man in the ACC. We'll see if the Big East Defensive Player of the Year is up to the task. (Friday, 3:50 pm, TNT)

Who needs defense anyway? (7) Missouri vs. (10) Utah State

If you like free-flowing offense, ball movement and 3-pointers, this matchup is for you. Here's the skinny on Utah State: It ranks 10th nationally in assist rate, has four players who shoot over 37 percent from 3, and features a lead guard (Steven Ashworth) who has scored 26-plus points five times this season. Mizzou, meanwhile, has its own collection of snipers; D'Moi Hodge, Kobe Brown and Nick Honor have all hit better than 39 percent of their shots from bonus land. (Thursday, 1:20 pm, TNT)

A foreshadowing for the Big East? (4) UConn vs. (13) Iona

Rick Pitino — the subject of plenty of St. John's rumors — could be facing future conference foe Dan Hurley and the Connecticut Huskies. On the court, the Gaels have the size to at least contend with Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. On the sidelines, well, let's just say we get two of the sport's biggest personalities manning the clipboard and working the refs. And it's in New York? (Albany, but still.) Pitino needs to break out the pinstripe suit for this one. (Friday, 4:20 pm, TBS)

Mad Max's furious road: (5) Duke vs. (12) Oral Roberts

Max Abmas makes his triumphant return to March Madness, and the best part is, this time, there will be fans in the building. Oral Roberts takes a 17-game winning streak into their meeting with Duke, victors of nine in a row. On paper, the Golden Eagles should be able to spread out the Blue Devils, who wield the size advantage. But Dereck Lively and Kyle Filipowski aren't your average 7-footers; they're more than capable of guarding the perimeter. To advance, ORU will need more than just Abmas. Their own behemoth, 7-5 Connor Vanover, could hold the keys to a W. (Thursday, 7 pm, CBS)

3. Bubble vision

After months of speculation (a special shout out to our Fielding the 68 crew that does said speculation oh so well), there's no more wondering which teams are on or off the bubble. 

Rutgers appears to be the biggest snub. Yes, the Scarlet Knights limped to the finish line, posting a 3-7 record over their last 10 games. But few programs can match their list of impressive wins, which include at Purdue, at Northwestern and at Penn State. If the committee values the whole body of work, why not give Rutgers the nod over Arizona State? (The Sun Devils really milked that buzzer beater for all it was worth.)

“Obviously it’s a tough day, our goal was to go to the NCAA Tournament, and I felt like we did enough. It’s a tough job that the selection committee has and unfortunately, they felt like it wasn’t good enough," Steve Pikiell told reporters Sunday. The coach added that Rutgers will participate in the NIT (which, uh, contrasts Carolina.) 

Turning to Stillwater, Oklahoma State missed the Dance despite Mike Boynton's best efforts. This program can't catch a break — an unjust postseason ban zapped any hope the 'Pokes had last year, and they found themselves on the outside looking in this March. Their Q1 wins and strength of schedule gave the selection committee something to think about, but the 15 losses were too much to overcome.

Finally, there's Clemson. Brad Brownell's squad finished third in the ACC and still didn't make the tourney. That's a tough pill to swallow. Even more frustrating for the Tiger faithful? Their team beat NC State three times by a combined 65 (!!) points, yet the Wolfpack avoided the First Four and snagged an 11-seed. 

Look, I think Clemson deserved a bid over its ACC cohort (and over Pitt as well). But there's one life lesson I hope this instills in the Tigers: Don't lose to Louisville.

4. Overworked and under-seeded

So who else has a gripe with the selection committee? Here's a handful of teams who might have a bone to pick over their low seeds:

  • Texas A&M slots as a 7-seed, despite finishing second in the SEC with wins at Auburn and Missouri and home triumphs over Alabama and Tennessee. The Aggies have played at a top-25 level since mid-February, but a mega-weak nonconference schedule knocked them down a couple of seed lines. That's rotten luck for Texas, which might have to topple its old rivals just to get to the second weekend.

  • FAU may contend it deserved better than a 9-seed. Its 29 D-I wins tie UCLA, Alabama and Purdue for second-most in the country. The advanced metrics favorably portray the Owls as well — they rank 26th on KenPom, 30th on Torvik, 31st on EvanMiya and 13th on the NET.

  • Who needs a sauna when you live in Providence? The Friars had to sweat out their selection, coming in as the last 11-seed in the bracket reveal. With wins over UConn, Marquette and Creighton, PC probably thought it would be in a better position a couple of weeks ago.

  • Staying in the Big East — and circling back to the first headline — UConn is an over-qualified 4-seed. Its five losses between Dec. 31 and Jan. 18 hurt its résumé. But now Kansas must deal with the consequences. The Jayhawks may have to face this national title-caliber team in the Sweet 16. 

5. Upset special(s)?

If you cheered for a team on the bubble, you probably noticed the lack of bid stealers at the low and mid-major levels. While the chalky results sapped a little excitement from Conference Tournament Week, they could yield more unpredictable outcomes in the Big Dance.

Consider this: this year's 13-seeds boast an average KenPom ranking of 81.5, compared to 83.25 in 2022 and 88.5 in 2021 (pre-tourney data.) Similarly, the 14-seeds check in at an average of 108.8 compared to last season's 133.8. The 12-seeds buck the trend, as they are slightly weaker than the 2022 group (64.5 average KenPom rank, compared to 60.5), but they stack up more favorably against the 12s from '21 (75). 

Moreover, a few of these teams feature blue-chip talent. Take Drake, for example, where Tucker DeVries runs the show. The sweet-shooting 6-7 wing was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school and is now on NBA radars.

Louisiana's Jordan Brown made the McDonald's All-American team. Santa Barbara's Miles Norris played at the storied Brewster Academy and ranked in the top 70 of his class. Kent State's Sincere Carry could make an NBA roster. And you already know about Max Abmas. 

Of course, the 3- and 4-seeds could all advance as expected. And maybe at least three of the 5-seeds make it out of the first round. But if I was a supporter of any of those schools, there isn't one opponent I'd feel overly confident about. 

Tracking coaching changes

Programs with new openings

Hires announced over the weekend

  • This past Wednesday, McNeese State fired John Aiken. Sunday afternoon, it announced Will Wade as the school's next coach. Wade was out of coaching this past season after the NCAA's notice of allegations forced LSU's hand.

  • Yesterday, Austin Peay tabbed Corey Gipson as its next coach. Gipson led Northwestern State to the Southland Championship game this season — his first at the helm.

Favorites who have emerged

Cooler seats

Redemption time

After an unceremonious end to Coach K's career in last year's Final Four, coach Jon Scheyer seems primed to lead the Blue Devils back to the Final Four. The AFTER DARK crew explains.

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Links as you look up boxing workouts after watching Creed III (and give up on them a day later.)

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