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Marquette's moment?
Shaka Smart's squad is ready to build on an incredible 2022-23 season. How does that take shape? Plus: The MAAC grows, the NEC shrinks, West Virginia loses a waiver request, All-America teams, guard debates and much more.
We’re thinking of the Georgetown women’s basketball program, and the family of Tasha Butts. The women’s coach died yesterday at the age of 41 after a battle with breast cancer. Go hug your loved ones.
1. Forget the Big East. Marquette’s focused on March.
Amid an active transfer portal, there’s something to be said for sticking with what you got. Just ask Marquette.
The Golden Eagles’ marvelous season — 29 wins (most in school history) and Big East regular-season and tourney titles (no small thing given UConn won the natty) — was a direct result of coach Shaka Smart evaluating his roster and deciding that his roster was already good enough to win. So he forsook the portal.
Well, Smart used the same approach this offseason and ignored the transfer portal. Though it’s easy to understand given what Marquette returns: Eight of nine rotation players, including Big East POY Tyler Kolek.
“It’s for our guys to feel like there is a genuine commitment to them, to their games and to their growth as people,” Smart said. “I think if our guys feel that, there are powerful downstream effects with winning.”
If Marquette is going to repeat as Big East champions this season, it’s going to start with Kolek, arguably the best point guard in all of college basketball.
A former transfer from George Mason, Kolek went from being a slick passer that had moments in his first season with Marquette to the unquestioned leader of the program. “All the things that matter to us as coaches, he has,” Smart said. “Mental toughness, the willingness to sacrifice, communication, resiliency, who you are as a teammate.”
And, oh by the way, he also happens to be a basketball junkie that is one of the best passers in the country. He thrives in ball screens, he’s much improved as a shooter, and despite looking like he showed up at the Fiserv Forum because he got lost on his way to a frat party, he’s an underrated defender whose willingness to accept mismatches allows Smart’s defensive game plans to be successful.
There are more details in the Almanac, which also addresses the loss of do-it-all wing Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette’s best defender and third-leading scorer from last season. It’s a great way to spend $19.99, if you haven’t already bought it.
But what about a personal touch? How are Marquette fans feeling about this season, their chances to repeat, and Smart’s influence?
For that, I turned to Andrei Greska. He runs Paint Touches, one of my favorite college hoops sites. It fuses fandom, tempo-free analysis, and the eye test as seamlessly as any place on the web.
He was kind enough to answer four questions.
Q: How are you feeling about a repeat as Big East champs? We pegged them as the team to beat in The Almanac. And after last season's unexpected stellar season, will anything less than a regular-season or Big East tourney title feel like a letdown?
Andrei Greska: It's quite a foreign feeling as a Marquette fan, first and foremost. Even during Buzz Williams' peak, Marquette was still sort of fighting for respect and wasn't considered a favorite any preseason.
So this whole offseason of nothing but love, including from the Almanac, has thrown me. But as for personal expectations, I think March success is the bigger letdown potential. Creighton and UConn will be insanely good. Marquette was fairly fortunate to get 17 league wins last season (with some close wins down the stretch vs Xavier and Creighton) so if MU were to go 14-6 and finish a game or two behind, I think that's well within the realm of possibilities of not meeting last year's results, while still performing at very high level.
But if you ask most around these parts, they'd trade the Big East banner for an Elite 8 most years. Shaka Smart and the team have been quite vocal about their national title aspirations and leaning into the heightened expectations, so for me, not reaching the Sweet 16 at minimum will feel like a letdown, no matter what happens in the regular season.
Q: You recently wrote at Paint Touches about what makes Chase Ross a "dude." You summarize it pretty succinctly at the end —- go read the whole article if you haven't already — but I'm curious. Is he the only "dude" on the Marquette roster? Tyler Kolek is certainly The Man, but I wouldn't call him a dude, that is, someone who wows you with an athletic display.
Greska: I think he's definitely the only bonafide dude.
Kolek, Kam and Oso are top end talents, no doubt, but they don't necessarily thrive off their athletic gifts. Stevie Mitchell's a winner and epic glue guy, Jop can get buckets and while Ben Gold is template Euro-style 5, none of them are a dude. Sean Jones could be, as he's probably the most athletic Marquette guard since Dominic James, but tough for a sub-6-foot role player to be a dude.
From the freshmen, Zaide Lowery has gotten direct Chase Ross comps from a few places, including Shaka, so he has dude potential, but I'd be hesitant to tag him just yet, without seeing on court production.
Q: David Joplin's seen as the obvious choice to replace OMax in the starting line both for his experience and scoring ability. But I have to think Ross will push for that spot because of his defense. Because that's the big concern for this season, right?
Greska: Ross most likely won't have a starring role this season, and won't be a national name just yet, but his defensive skillset will be even more crucial to MU without OMax Prosper, so he will have an integral role, most likely as the first off the bench.
And the big question mark about the team this year is 100% defensive. Marquette was better down the stretch, and particularly so against high level opponents, but it still wasn't anywhere close to elite on D. Now take away OMax, the lengthy first-round draft pick who defended 1-4 at an elite level, I think the defense has legitimate questions.
Take Hoop-Explorer's lineup data. The starters (Kolek/Jones/Mitchell/Oso) + Prosper put up an insane +35.7 Adjusted Net Rating in 728 possessions, filtering out garbage time. The starters + Joplin were only +8.1 in 72 possessions, with a ghastly Adj DRating of 124.7. Obviously that's a much smaller sample size and no one would have pegged MU's starting 5 to be one of the top lineups in college basketball last summer, so I am expecting significant improvement.
But this is all to say, Ross' defensive acumen and versatility has me believing he'll play as many minutes as Joplin, if not more.
Q: Describe the difference between Wojo's teams and Shaka teams as fan. Do you wake up every day and just think "Yes. This is what I wanted."?
Greska: Have you ever tried to cut through a wood 2x4 with a steak knife, even those super sharp ones? It requires an extreme amount of effort and when you stop to breathe because your arm is about to fall off, you realize you barely made a dent. That's a Wojo team.
Some individual pieces are the sharpest knives in their class but when you see what the task at hand is, it's nearly impossible. And then you lose a Markus Howard series knife and you're left with 3 butter knives and a spoon and you look at the mirror and say what is wrong with me. So you go to Home Depot and get a circular saw all of a sudden you're slicing through 2x4s in like 5 seconds. That's Shaka.
The individual parts may not be as awe-inducing, but as a whole, they punch so far above their weight. Winning is important, duh, but aside from the results, the style Shaka's Marquette teams have played are so incredibly easy on the eyes. It's more satisfying than I could have ever imagined.
Andrei’s been a Marquette fan for more than 15 years, and has been running Paint Touches nearly the whole time. You can find more of his work here.
Need more on the Golden Eagles, the Big East and college hoops in general? Buy The Almanac, just $19.99.
2. MAAC expands … and NEC dwindles
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s teams, nestled into four states in the Northeast corridor, frequently receive more attention than your usual mid-major league. Comes with the territory when you’ve got schools in major metropolitan areas.
It’s also a league that usually punches above its weight when it comes to hoops, too. Whether it’s Iona (winners of 13 MAAC tourney titles), Siena (oh, those Fran McCaffery days), or Saint Peter’s (the Peacocks might still be America’s sweethearts), it’s usually got 2-3 programs that can counter-punch vs a power conference team.
And now, the MAAC is joining power conference schools and getting bigger.
🚨 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 🚨
Today becomes a historic day as we welcome Merrimack and Sacred Heart as full members, propelling #MAACSports to a league all-time high 1️⃣3️⃣ members in 2024-25!
Release ⤵️
📰: bit.ly/3MbpDfe#MAACSports x @MC_Athletics x @SHUBigRed
— #MAACSports (@MAACSports)
4:00 PM • Oct 23, 2023
Sacred Heart and Merrimack aren’t going to immediately disrupt the league hoops powers. Both will be among the Northeast Conference’s best teams this season, but they’ll be mid-tier MAAC teams to start.
More important is this guards the MAAC against other conference realignment moves, such as Iona or Siena jumping elsewhere. This would keep the MAAC at 12 teams, and offer stability.
As for the NEC, this move leaves it with just four teams that are eligible for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 NCAA Tournaments and just five active D-I teams in Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, St. Francis (PA) and LIU. (Stonehill and Le Moyne are currently transitioning to D-I, but will likely file waivers to become eligible sooner; Bellarmine just filed a similar petition.)
That number is important because it now has a two-year grace period to find two active D-I teams before it loses its automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament.
As Nelson Castillo notes, a merger with the MEAC might be possible, or even an invitation to D-I independent Chicago State.
Whatever the case, the NEC’s media day is today, which means conference officials better be prepared to answer a wide range of questions about its future.
3. News to know: A waiver update and key injuries
The season is less than two weeks away, but several teams are still waiting on waiver decisions from the NCAA. We learned an important one on Monday.
The NCAA denied a waiver for fifth-year guard RaeQuan Battle, West Virginia announced. Battle averaged nearly 18 points a game last season for Montana State and was probably going to do the same in Morgantown. The school is appealing the decision.
Morehead State is the heavy favorite to win the Ohio Valley. That might change now that Mark Freeman, the preseason POY for the league, is likely out for the season because of a wrist injury. He led the team in scoring (15.0 a game) and assists (3.7 a game) last season.
Georgetown forward Ismael Massoud broke his hand during the team’s closed scrimmage on Saturday vs. Pittsburgh. He’ll miss 6-8 weeks, per John Fanta. The fifth-year senior was a key player for K-State last season and is expected to start for the Hoyas.
4. Big omission from Bob Cousy Award watch list
If college hoops is filled with dominant big men (see: All-America teams below), then the list of elite point guards isn’t far behind.
Which is why I’m trying to avoid being too critical of the Bob Cousy Award watch list that was released on Monday.
Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame Names 20 Point Guards to 2024 Bob Cousy Award Watch List.
#CousyAward | #HoophallU
— University of Hoophall (@hoophallu)
4:59 PM • Oct 23, 2023
Like any preseason list, this one’s got plenty of excellent choices, whether it’s pass-first guards (Dajuan Harris), score-first shooters (Max Abmas) or talented freshmen (Isaiah Collier). That said, there are some questions …
The obvious omission is Kansas State senior Tylor Perry. He was a third-team All-American in the Almanac, and will be in the running for Big 12 POY. His omission here is strange.
Beyond Perry, Michigan State senior AJ Hoggard and Alabama senior Aaron Estrada both could arguably be included, especially if one views Nijel Pack and RJ Davis as shooting guards and remove Jahvon Quinerly’s name altogether.
Perfect list? Nah. But it’d be closer.
5. The All-America debate
Before I dive into any arguments, let’s begin with the consensus: Everyone loves Zach Edey.
Purdue’s senior center was the lone unanimous selection on the AP All-America team. No surprise there. We felt the same way when voting on the Almanac. The rest of the team announced Monday included Marquette guard Tyler Kolek, Kansas center Hunter Dickinson and Duke big man Kyle Filipowski. No disagreements there.
The one spot that was different between the Almanac and the AP? UNC center Armando Bacot got the nod over Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner from the AP.
Now, I’m not saying the Almanac is the superior product, but … well, actually, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Anyway, let’s compare the two players.
Start with your basic counting stats. Kalkbrenner trails in rebounds, but he’s a better shooter, and just as productive on offense. He’s also far superior on defense, thanks to his superior length (he’s 7-1; Bacot is 6-10), and ability to stay out of foul trouble.
As a result, he impacts the game on both ends of the floor.
In fact, if there’s a drawback to Kalkbrenner’s game, it’s that he’s not more assertive on offense. His efficiency metrics (per kenpom) showcase a player who’s a Top 10 player when he’s on offense.
Again, this isn’t shade for Bacot, who’s a fantastic player — and almost certainly will improve in nearly every category this season given the UNC roster. If the Heels do return to the NCAA Tournament, it’ll be because Bacot dragged them there. That’s no small thing.
Still, Kalkbrenner’s the reason why Creighton’s going to vying for the Final Four, not just a tourney berth.
Desert rose
In case you needed more thoughts on Caleb Love (after Monday’s Daily), the dudes at the DTF podcast spent time discussing why Love is in the right place, and why he elevates Arizona to an elite team this season.
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Links as you try to decide if Michigan cheated or just tried really hard.
Clemson added 4-star PG Del Jones to its 2024 recruiting class.
Chris Riddle, a Top 150 wing in the class of 2024, will play for DePaul.
How many games would Chicago State need to win for an NCAA tourney berth?
Thinking about a trip to the Maui Invitational? More tickets went on sale last week. If you don’t like long flights, you could always just support the Maui recovery (and still watch hoops).
Really good in-depth analysis of sophomores who could break out this season.
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