A winning formula?

How will Kentucky's season turn out? It's hard to say with the emphasis on going small. But we know this: It's going to be a fun team to watch. Plus, Cal gets bad waiver news, games to watch this weekend, and much more.

Author

Tristan Freeman
October 27, 2023

As much as these upcoming college hoops games don’t count on paper, we have some quality exhibition games to watch, featuring Top-25 programs. We highlight those matchups, as well as a rebuilding program that got bad news with one of its key newcomers.

But first, let’s see what’s happening in Lexington.

1. Back to what worked for Kentucky. Kind of.

Kentucky’s last two season ended with a thud. The Wildcats fell short of lofty expectations so coach John Calipari is going back to what worked in the 2010s.

Talented teenagers. Lots of them.

Kentucky brought in the nation’s top recruiting class for 2023, filled with four 5-star prospects in DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Justin Edwards and Rob Dillingham. Throw in 4-star guard Reed Sheppard and a 7-1 big man from Croatia in Zvonimir Ivisic, and it’s akin to the teams that ran roughshod over the SEC 10-15 years ago.

When the rest of D-I is turning to the transfer portal to fill gaps or build out rosters, is this Calipari panicking? Living in denial? Or is his simply zigging while everyone else is zagging? I asked Kyle Tucker of The Athletic, a reporter who’s covered Calipari through the thick and thin, for some insights.

Tucker: I'll just let Calipari explain it. "You know if you ask me talent or experience, I'm taking talent, and talent usually figures it out," he said this week. I think he tried the transfer thing, getting way older, and it flopped the last two years. So he's going back to what he knows, rolling with eight freshmen, two sophomores, two seniors while the rest of college basketball goes old. "I'm going to recruit the best freshman player that I can get," Cal said. "Now, you could say, 'It's not going to work anymore!' Well, we'll see. Let's play it out and we'll see."

Is that wishful thinking? Calipari's got his critics for the team's shortfalls, but is there something to the fact that the SEC is just better than it used to be? Actually, that might be underselling it. Gary Parrish, Terrence Oglesby and other national analysts think it's the best league in the country, in no small part to all the coaching upgrades over the years. It's wild to look at the league's coaches from 2015 and compare them to 2023.

Tucker: Without a doubt, that plays a part in it. Kentucky was feasting on a bad basketball league in the first decade under Calipari. Now, to be fair, they were also kicking everyone from every league's ass in those days too. But the coaches and the financial commitment to basketball in the SEC have both been dramatically upgraded in recent years. Calipari recently said he used to only worry about two or three other teams in the league, and now it's eight or nine. Frank Martin used to apologize for hurting his friend Cal's strength of schedule. It's no coincidence that Calipari keeps saying, "Administrations win championships" lately.

But wait! There’s yet another wrinkle!

The Wildcats also don’t have any available big men right now. Like, at all. Sophomore Ugonna Onyenso and Bradshaw have both been recovering from foot surgeries over the summer. There’s no timeline for their return (most speculate early 2024), though Bradshaw wasn’t happy about the never-ending rumors about his recovery or if he’ll play at all for UK.

And Ivisic? The 7-1 center who committed in August as insurance to the health issues for their other big men? He’s actually not eligible to play.

The school issued a statement Thursday about him: “As a department, we want to clarify, Zvonimir Ivisic has been cleared to practice and play in all intrasquad games. That said, he cannot compete against outside competition, including exhibition games, until he is approved by the NCAA. There was miscommunication in this regard and, as we always do, we plan to adhere to NCAA rules. until he is fully cleared, Zvonimir will be withheld from games against outside competition.

That leaves West Virginia transfer Tre Mitchell — all 6-foot-9 of him — as the long “big man” on the roster. How’s that gonna go, Kyle?

Tucker: Mitchell has looked awesome in exhibition games as a stretch-five, and it makes Kentucky a much more fun, modern offense, but they're going to run into some large humans in non-league (Hello, Hunter Dickinson in the Champions Classic) and league play, and they need somebody with some size to actually become available.

So, uh, where’s the optimism? After all, this is Kentucky. Even when the ‘Cats are bad — 48 wins over the last two seasons — they’re still dangerous.

What’s exciting about this Kentucky team is the threat it carries beyond the arc. In four games in the GLOBL JAM, Kentucky shot just under 38% from 3 while taking nearly 40% of its attempts from beyond the arc.

That’s good!

But Cal has never had a Kentucky team shoot more than 32.4% of its field goals from 3, and that was all the way back in 2011. In the past six seasons, he’s only had one team that ranked higher than 330th nationally in 3-point attempt rate — in 2021, when it was 292nd . Since 2011, the highest Kentucky has ranked is 273rd .

If Kentucky finishes this season with a 3-point attempt rate around 40%, it will allow it to space the floor and create driving lanes for the likes of Wagner, Dillingham and Edwards. It will put Reeves, Mitchell and Sheppard in the best position to be effective.

tl;dr: Kentucky went young by design, but is being forced to space the floor and run and gun past teams with an undersized team.

This is going to be wild to watch. And so fun.

But wait. If everyone’s a shooter, how will it go at the end of games? Reeves is the team's top returning scorer. Edwards could be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Wagner's as confident as it gets, and Dillingham just dropped 40 points in a scrimmage. Game on the line, who's taking the final shot for this team?

Tucker: Depends whether you need a two or a three. I like Wagner or Dillingham if it's a two-point game and you've just got to get a bucket or free throws, come hell or high water, no matter what the defense throws at you. I trust Reeves most of all if you need a three, and as a senior, he should be least afraid to take one in a big spot. (No, I haven't forgotten his cold night in the second-round loss to Kansas State, but I've also not forgotten how he cooked Arkansas on the road with no available point guard. He's the most reliable shot-maker they have.)

The season starts in 10 days. Kentucky opens at home vs. New Mexico State. Get the popcorn ready.

-Mike Miller

2. Cal dealt a waiver blow

Cal was one of the most talked-about teams this offseason after landing several transfers. One of them was Jaylon Tyson, a former 4-star prospect who averaged 10.7 ppg and 6.1 rpg last season, including 40% shooting from deep. However, it looks as if he may not suit up for the 2023-24 campaign.

Tyson made the preseason watch list for the Julius Erving Award. And he would have been the projected focal point of the offense. Assuming the appeal also is denied, this would be a big hit for Cal's hopes of being competitive.

While the Bears added talent, they still have depth concerns. On the wings are Memphis transfer Keonte Kennedy and returning role players, Monty Bowser and Jalen Celestine. None are floor raisers.

Without Tyson, new coach Mark Madsen will need the other two transfers to have big years. Jalen Cone averaged 18.2 ppg in two seasons at Northern Arizona, and has a season at a power conference program (Virginia Tech) under his belt. Big man Fardaws Aimaq showed the same at Texas Tech, but dealt with injury issues.

Cal isn’t the only program dealing with waiver denials (West Virginia and Cincinnati are both pleading their case to the NCAA with the help of state officials), which makes this a major storyline to watch in the coming weeks.

3. The scoop on the weekend’s basketball

Last weekend gave us a taste of live college basketball. This weekend, there are some standout games that’ll garner come attention and potentially lead to some overreactions. Here are five to keep an eye on.

Friday: George Mason vs West Virginia (7 pm ET, ESPN+)

West Virginia doesn’t have projected starter RaeQuan Battle (see: above waiver issues). So who will play on the wing? Kobe Johnson and Seth Wilson are going to get extended playing time and George Mason, who is filled with athletic guards, will be a solid test for the Mountaineers.

Saturday: Purdue vs Arkansas (4 pm ET, ESPN+)

This charity matchup features two preseason top-15 teams, including reigning NPOY center, Zach Edey. He didn’t play in Purdue’s preseason foreign tour so this will be his 2023-24 debut. This will also be a nice test for guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, going up against some elite athletes. As for Arkansas, assuming they treat this somewhat like a regular season game, keep on eye on who makes the main rotation among all of these newcomers.

Sunday: Southern Miss vs Mississippi State (3 pm ET, ESPN+)

With Tolu Smith out until around SEC play, Miss State has to adjust. Plus, after ranking last in the country in 3-point shooting, we’ll see if any improvements have been made. It’s also unknown whether Southern Miss will have Andre Curbelo, the transfer from St. John’s. It’ll need him to contend in the Sun Belt this season.

Sunday: Tennessee vs Michigan State (3:30 pm ET, Big Ten/Vol Network)

This matchup of preseason top-10 teams is for Maui relief and should be entertaining. Tennessee won’t have its starting backcourt, as Santiago Vescovi has a family situation to deal with, while Zakai Zeigler is still recovering from an injury. It’ll be a great test for the freshmen core of Michigan State, including 5-star big man, Xavier Booker.

Sunday: Kansas vs Illinois (6 pm ET, Big Ten Network)

The last of the trio of preseason top-25 exhibition games is another Maui fundraiser, and one that features two compelling returns. Former Michigan star Hunter Dickinson is back in Big Ten territory, and Bill Self is back in Champaign for the first time since he coached the Illini from 2000-2003. As for on-court storylines, we’ll see how Kansas fares shooting the ball, and what Illinois will do for point guard play.

4. No qualms with Karl Malone Award list

Power forwards are up next in the week of preseason nominees for positional awards. I could spend time debating on which players classify as four-men or true centers but I’ll leave that to Twitter/X.

Duke’s Kyle Filipowski is probably the name to watch, as the returning star big man on a preseason national title contender. I’m not a betting man, but he’d be a solid one to take as an eventual winner.

There are plenty of other star frontcourt players tasked with leading their respective teams. Norchad Omier is a double-double machine on the preseason No. 2 ACC team, Miami. DaRon Holmes II may be the best player from a non-power conference team, while Wyoming transfer Graham Ike looks to become the latest elite post-scorer at Gonzaga.

It’s a shame that Mississippi State star big man Tolu Smith is out until SEC play, likely costing his a shot at the Karl Malone Award. Yet as long as he comes back healthy, he’ll have a chance to carry the SEC team back to the NCAA Tournament, which is more important than an individual prize.

5. Cooper Flagg delays his decision

The top prospect in the class of 2024 was reportedly going to announce his school of choice this week.

But Cooper Flagg, a Maine native, has other things on his mind.

The latest mass shooting in the U.S. claimed the lives of at least 16 people and injured dozens on Wednesday in Lewiston, Maine.

As the tweet would suggest, don’t expect an announcement for the time being. And whatever Flagg decides pales in comparison to what’s going on in his home state at the moment. Our thoughts are with everyone affected by this horrible tragedy, as the healing process starts to begin.

Yo Quiero Taco Bell

John Fanta, Rob Dauster and Terrence Oglesby don’t always agree. But when it comes to a late night craving, they’re all in on Taco Bell. So to say they empathize with Indiana freshman Mackenzie Mgbako is fair.

Links as you take part in a 24-team college basketball fantasy draft that takes 5 days to complete.

Thanks for reading The Field of 68 Daily! If you have a news tip or feedback, email us at [email protected].