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Cyclones warning? Nah. It's already a storm
Iowa State's seen as one of the sure-fire Top 10 teams this season, even though it doesn't have elite talent. That doesn't matter when you embrace its defensive scheme. Plus, Miami adds a scoring prospect, the SWAC gets a scorer, coaches on NCAA tourney expansion, and Virginia's offseason moves.
Mike Miller
September 03, 2024
Good morning! Hope you enjoyed a nice long weekend. Spent mine at a youth soccer tournament, then at the family fantasy football draft. Can’t believe how many Jets I drafted.
Onto the college hoops news!
1. Iowa State’s here to stay. Thank the defense.
Iowa State ended the 2023-24 season as kenpom’s top defense, a spot one might usually associate with Houston or Tennessee. Those two have built their recent success on physical approaches, and last season was no different (they ranked second and third).
But at the top was the Cyclones and their aggressive, trapping defense that forced turnovers at a higher rate than all but one team last season, and rarely allowed opponents a clean look at any shot.
That defensive identity, along with four returning starters and a group of transfers that should seamlessly blend into that approach, is one of the reasons why Iowa State is seen as a preseason Top 10 squad. After all, if defense raises a program’s floor, then the Cyclones are living high, high above the streets.
And it’s a credit to fourth-year coach TJ Otzelberger’s approach that the defense is expected to remain formidable — even though their three big men (Tre King, Robert Jones and Hason Ward) are gone. As Jeff Goodman and Matt McCall discuss, the new big men, Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson, aren’t big names, but should be viewed as upgrades.
The group certainly will be tested during Big 12 play. The usual slate of Kansas, Houston and Baylor have more talented rosters, while league newcomer Arizona runs an offensive scheme that can challenge any defense.
Yet Oztelberger’s squad should be ready. As Will Warren wrote recently in his magnificent breakdown of Iowa State’s defense (subscribe to his site here, if you haven’t already), it’s not that Iowa State features elite defenders, or an unusual scheme (indeed, other teams feature a version of this no-middle, no-shots-in-the-paint approach), it’s that they’re insanely committed to this scheme.
Iowa State is willing to let you have the threes, just not the shots down low. It’s like a reverse packline in a way, or perhaps a half-court press. Here’s a possession from their late-season win over BYU at home. As a reminder, this year’s BYU team was a top-15 offense that shot 58% from two and dropped 1.2 PPP or better on all of Texas, Baylor, NC State, TCU, and yes, Iowa State. (We’ll get to that one.) After a horrid offensive half from Iowa State and a fairly rough one on defense, this is the first possession of the second half.
Here are three immediate things I notice that you should notice too.
-The ball never touches the paint in this 30-second possession from one of the best offenses in basketball.
-The one post action is immediately doubled.
-Iowa State is willing to let BYU take a three here.
The second note gets covered in the next section, and the first is no surprise given the point of the no-middle defense. But uniquely among this style of defense, Iowa State is perfectly happy to give up three-point attempts all day long. From time to time, it gets them burned against hot opponents, and they’re the first elite defense I can recall covering in recent history that actually allows more open catch-and-shoot threes than guarded ones, per Synergy. To Otzelberger and crew, this is all worth it in the name of avoiding attempts at the rim.
I encourage you to read the entire thing, which includes myriad screen grabs, charts and embedded videos to better illustrate the Cyclones’ approach.
The approach was immediately apparent to Jefferson, who spent the last two seasons at Saint Mary’s, a program that finished 15th and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. He recognizes there little extra with the Cyclones.
“They share the ball at an extreme rate. They play extremely hard,” Jefferson told the De Moines Register in early August. “Very coachable players. We don’t talk back. We just get it done.
“That’s what my biggest takeaway is - how hard and together they play.”
When you mix playing hard with a proven scheme and the right players that fit the scheme, it’s a potent mix. One that can deliver continued success — and even keep Iowa State among the elite of the sport’s elite conference.
2. Two notable commitments over the long weekend
We had a bunch of 2025 and 2026 prospects decide of programs over the last few days. Two stood out as an ACC school added a Top 50 recruit, and James Madison beat out a Big 12 program.