Houston, we have a favorite

The latest from The Field of 68 Premium focuses on the team who'd like to be playing at "home" next month: Houston. This exclusive content for paid subscribers is written by Will Warren, who writes a marvelous college hoops newsletter, Stats By Will. (Sign up for it here.)

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Most of this season, we’ve heard the same refrain: there is no best team. This is the Year of No Elites. There's data to back it up.

We're on pace to be the second-weakest top 5 grouping in 25 years, along with a projected 1-seed group that’s the worst since 2006. The No. 1 spot in the AP Poll has been held for a total of seven weeks by a team that wasn’t ranked in the preseason poll, while the preseason AP No. 1 is likely going to miss the NCAA Tournament.

However, quietly, we have had a best team. Considering that this is a sport where someone is legally required to be considered the best team in a given season, there is a team that ranks No. 1 in the current AP Poll. They’re also No. 1 on KenPom, Bart Torvik, and essentially any analytics-based site you’d care to observe. They don’t have the best resume, but by Wins Above Bubble, they’re No. 4, which pairs quite well with their metrics.

You've probably guessed. It's Houston, a team that has risen to be the cream of the crop in a year where the crop is tighter than it’s been in a long time and the cream is starting to turn. The Cougars don’t play in a power conference, as KenPom ranks the American Athletic Conference 8th-best nationally. They’re likely to have no more than one other team from their conference make the field of 68. They’ve played a combined 17 games against Quadrant 3 and 4 opponents.

And yet: if Houston wins the AAC Conference Tournament, it'll be the team with the most weeks spent atop the AP Poll. Along with that, it's been No. 1 on KenPom since December 22, a streak that is likely to last three months as we inch closer to the Tournament. They're 11th in offensive efficiency, and 4th in defensive efficiency; with a couple of decent games, they'll be only team in the top 10 in both.

Perhaps they suffer from Gonzaga Syndrome. Like Gonzaga, Houston doesn’t play in a power conference, and they spend a lot of their conference play beating lesser teams. However, these aren't empty wins. Houston went to the Final Four in 2021 and the Elite Eight last year. They don’t play the sexiest brand of basketball, but they win, and they win a lot. How has Houston built their own unique brand? How has said brand held up against higher-end competition? Lastly, how do teams like Houston — those built more on shot volume than shot efficiency — fare in March?

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