The Field of 68 Daily: NBA Draft edition

Who goes No. 1, potential for first-round drama, a draft roundtable and much more

June 23, 2022

Tonight’s the night! After months of NBA Draft previews, debate, mock drafts and rumors, we’ll have two glorious rounds of player highlights, unsupported speculation and immediate criticism of moves. (Draft starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, but hang with The Field of 68 afterward.)

We’ll finally have answers to our lingering draft questions, including among others:

  • Is it Paolo, Chet or Jabari?

  • Does a center go in the lottery?

  • Which guard do the Kings take this season?

  • How many Duke players go in the first round?

  • Does Greg Waddell go streaking through the quad when the Pistons draft Keegan Murray?

We’re here for it at The Field of 68 Daily. Let’s get to the news draft!

STARTING FIVE

1. Who’s the 1?

Auburn wing Jabari Smith is a sure shot. Duke forward Paolo Banchero is a “safe” pick. Gonzaga forward Chet Holmgren represents the most upside. The endless debate over the last few months (mercifully) ends tonight when the Orlando Magic make their choice. (Pretty sure this was taken when all three had to hear First Take’s latest debate.)

Oddsmakers think it’s between Smith and Banchero. Smith was the favorite for weeks, but it shifted dramatically overnight (he’s a 9, but can’t dribble). Does that sink Holmgren’s chances (his BetRivers odds went from +225 to +425 in the last 24 hours) or is it all just an elaborate fake?

So. What’s the case for each player? Rob Dauster, Terrence Oglesby and John Fanta explain.

2. It’s a packed green room

Jaden Ivey’s a lock to be selected fourth overall (whether he gets traded is another story), but expect a flurry of perimeter players to fly off the board throughout the first round. That mix of wings and shooting guards — Bennedict Mathurin, Keegan Murray, Jeremy Sochan, Shaedon Sharpe, Ochai Agbaji, Johnny Davis, A.J. Griffin and Malaki Branham — will fill out the lottery.

Probably.

Players invited to the draft’s green room are often projected as lottery picks, mostly so they’re not sitting there, painfully watching with TV cameras fixed on them. This year, it’s a little bigger green room than normal.

Twenty-four players accepted green room invites, adding a modicum of chaos to the Barclays Center. (Last year, there were only 15 invites, and the draft was virtual in 2020.) Will any of those 24 be left waiting after the first round ends? Nic Claxton and Bol Bol both had it happen in 2019; thankfully for the players, this does not happen frequently as each one likely has a first-round promise from a team.

3. Lingering draft questions: A roundtable

Our writers – Riley Davis, Tristan Freeman, Sean Paul, and Greg Waddell – traded draft messages with me over the last few days because I asked them to to ponder topics not widely discussed.

You’ve got the power to force one player with eligibility to return to school. Who is it? Greg, this would make you choose between Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate. I know, it’s Sophie’s Choice. (You guys all get the 40-year-old movie references, right?)

Greg: I’m gonna shock some folks here, but I wish Malaki Branham would’ve returned to Ohio State. The Johnny Davis/Jaden Ivey/Keegan Murray sophomore leap was there for him ... but it’s hard to pass up an assured mid-first round projection.

Tristan: Joshua Minott. Memphis has 40 fewer wings on the roster this season and the former Top 50 prospect could’ve easily had a breakout campaign — and landed in the lottery. Just a disappointment he ended up on the bench during his lone year in college.

Sean: Seeing senior-season Christian Braun as the reigning champion’s top option would’ve been interesting. He could have given Kansas back-to-back All-Americans and led the nation in yelling. Alas, Braun’s probably going in the first round. Hard to argue that.

Riley: I would have loved to see David Roddy get one more shot at a March run. His unorthodox skillset has the power to compel casual fans — who wouldn’t want to watch a 6-6 tank playing point-forward? Niko Medved has one of the brightest minds in the sport; with Roddy in the fold, the Rams again would’ve been a mainstay in the Top 25.

What about the top of the draft? Which lottery pick gives you pause? For some reason, I have this nagging feeling about Jaden Ivey’s shooting stroke – which is a little silly considering a freak athlete doesn’t always need to shoot 3s to light up teams.

Greg: It’s Jaden Ivey, but it’s not just the shooting stroke. It’s the missed simple passing reads in the half court, it’s the lack of consistent defensive effort, it’s the pouting every time he doesn’t have the ball late, and it’s the fact that one of college basketball’s best offensive coaches never gave him the keys over the likes of Eric Hunter. There are reasons for that, and NBA fans will find out soon enough.

Tristan: What exactly is Ivey at the next level? Is he a shooting guard that makes less than 30 percent of his attempts from distance, or a ball-dominant point guard who doesn’t make his teammates better? His athleticism fits in today’s NBA but his skillset needs a complete overhaul in order to warrant a top-5 pick.

Sean: We just don’t know enough about Shaedon Sharpe. He could’ve played when Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington suffered early injuries and said nah. It’s hard to tell what the ultra-talented guard will be.

Riley: Spending a top-8 pick on AJ Griffin seems a bit risky. Undeniably, he shot the ball at an elite level, which was even more impressive considering he didn’t start the season at full health. However, teams often exposed him on the defensive end, and he showed limited skills on-ball.

Let’s flip that question. Who plays in the All-Star game first? And no, you can’t say Nikola Jovic in a Distinguished Gentleman style mix-up. (How about 30-year-old movies? Anyone seen that one?)

Greg: All three at the top will get there often, but Jabari Smith will get there first. Jumbo wings with that type of shot are instant NBA producers.

Sean: It’s Jaden Ivey for me. Guards find an easier time making flashy plays, which is the primary objective of the All-Star game. Maybe as a second-year player, Ivey averages close to 20 points, wows the fans, and has Mike, Greg and Tristan eat their words.

Tristan: It’s going to be a guy who puts up insane numbers and can lift their respective team to the playoffs. Jabari Smith is the top option, but one guy to watch is Keegan Murray, who I believe can be a 20 ppg scorer quickly and will be a fan favorite with his smooth game.

Riley: Paolo Banchero will make the first All-Star team out of this class. He enters the league with a strong build that can hold up physically, and his perimeter skills will shine with NBA spacing. While his defensive impact won’t measure up to someone like Evan Mobley, he can produce similar stats on offense in his first year or two.

Final question: In five years, which player will teams regret passing on? I’m excited for Andrew Nembhard to turn into the new Fred VanVleet and blossom with a smart team who recognizes game.

Greg: Alondes Williams has the type of all-around game that will translate, especially if he lands on a playoff-ready team. It’s not his fault nobody watched him in the miserable ACC last year (sorry Riley and Tristan).

Tristan: There’s usually a mid-major star that fans don’t know too much about, yet becomes a multi-all-star at the next level. Jalen Williams is that guy. Had he played at a Pac-12 program instead of Santa Clara, his stock would be even higher.

Sean: I love former Murray State star, Tevin Brown. The shooting, IQ, playmaking, height, and defense should make him a top-tier UDFA candidate if he doesn’t get selected. Duncan Robinson made 90 million dollars to make 3s and Brown can do more than just shoot.

Riley: Jake LaRavia gives Wake Forest not one, but two representatives on this list! The 6-8 jack-of-all-trades possesses legitimate point-forward upside — and he’s only 20. He won’t regale teams with his athleticism, but he exhibits underrated shiftiness with the ball in his hands and makes smart plays on defense.

4. Everyone’s (pretty) healthy + a programming note

Some drafts are marked by lingering player injuries. Think bad backs (Jared Sullinger), random foot injuries (Joel Embiid), or a lingering condition (Michael Porter, Jr.), but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year.

However it shakes out, our crew will be around afterward for analysis. You’ll need this link.

5. When mock drafts aren’t enough

We get it. You’re hooked. You’ve read roughly 4,901 mock drafts, debated draft slots on Twitter, and have an ongoing argument about why the Knicks should trade the No. 11 pick for De’Aaron Fox because this draft lacks impact point guards.

Well, dive into this BetRivers data. Put that knowledge to use.

Most Wagered-On NBA Draft Bets by % of total NBA Draft Money

1. Jabari Smith to go No. 1 overall (-286) — 29.1%2. Under 1.5 Baylor players drafted in Round 1 (-111) — 8.2% 3. Under 4.5 Duke players drafted in Round 1 (-132) — 5.6%4. Paolo Banchero to go No. 1 overall (+195) — 4.4%5. Chet Holmgren to go No. 1 overall (+420) — 4.2%

Most Wagered-on Draft Position Over/Under Bets by % of Total O/U Money

1. Benedict Mathurin Under 6.5 (-235) — 9.3%2. Ochai Agbaji Over 13.5 (-200) — 8.1%3. Jaden Ivey Under 4.5 (-167) — 8.0.%4. Shaedon Sharpe Under 7.5 (+140) — 7.8%5. Malaki Branham Over 14.5 (-125) — 7.2%

Most Popular Draft Position Over/Under Bets by % of Total O/U Tickets

1. Shaedon Sharpe Under 7.5 (+140) — 14.8%2. Benedict Mathurin Under 6.5 (-235) — 7.1%3. Jalen Duren Over 10.5 (-134) — 6.5%4. Tari Eason Under 17.5 (+100) — 5.9%5. Ochai Agbaji Over 13.5 (-200) — 5.4%

THE FAST BREAK (Non-Draft stuff)

Links as you prepare for ROBOT basketball.

Thanks for reading the Field of 68 Daily. We’ll see you tomorrow (and don’t forget the LIVE post-draft coverage tonight!)