What's next for FAU?

The Owls hit rare air during their remarkable 2022-23 season. Following that up with another stellar season would be nearly unprecedented. Plus: the Big 12 still wants Gonzaga, the Big Ten and Summit prep for media day events, and much more.

Author

Mike Miller
October 10, 2023

The season really is near. We’re smack-dab in the middle of conference media days. The American kicked off things in Dallas on Monday, while the Big Ten and Summit League keep things rolling today.

And, like any smart media group, The Field of 68 is zigging while others zag. Jeff Goodman and Rob Dauster will be in Sioux Falls today, hosting a live show from 11 am - 3 pm ET. They’ll do more of the same the next few days as well. Wednesday, they’re in Las Vegas for the Pac-12, and pulling double duty on Thursday with the Mountain West and WCC, which also is in Vegas.

Hm. Vegas. No wonder they don’t have anything slated for Friday.

Let's get to Monday’s news.

1. FAU’s ready for its encore

Florida Atlantic’s magical season still boggles the mind. 35 wins, a sweep of the C-USA regular-season and tourney titles, and its first Final Four. All from a program that’s not even 40 years old, and had only been to one NCAA Tournament.

That kind of season isn’t a trick that’s easily replicated. The conditions often change, and the crowd expects bigger and better. For FAU, that meant a move to the American Athletic Conference, where they’ll be the team to beat (more on that below).

Again, replicating a magical season shouldn’t be possible. Except … it doesn’t sound like coach Dusty May expects anything less.

“Our players are just as hungry as they were last year, if not hungrier,” he told Jim Root for The Almanac preview. “Not a lot has changed. Just like every offseason, we did a deep dive autopsy on ourselves and figured out where we could get better.”

Better than a Final Four and 35 wins? OK. Let’s see this trick.

The Almanac has a detailed explanation of how FAU plans to succeed this season, though here’s a hint: It’s not magic. Not when you return nearly every single player (only guard Michael Forrest is gone) and can utilize different rotations according to what’s working. Last season, that meant using star players Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin off the bench for extended periods (20 and 14 games, respectively), a chemistry experiment that usually derails a team.

Even better is the Owls can adjust how they’re playing. They’ll run when needed or slow it down. And they know teams will be gunning for them. As May told Matt McCall, success doesn’t mean complacency. Not for him or his players.

Only a handful of teams have pulled off the back-to-back magical seasons.

Butler did it in 2010-11 when it reached the championship game again thanks to a series of remarkable NCAA Tournament wins. Its regular season was more up and down. Wichita State followed a 30-win, Final Four season by entering the NCAA Tournament without a loss (then fell to a Kentucky team that reached the title game).

Those are the two ideal examples for what could happen to FAU. Odds are the Owls experience a year more akin to what VCU had in 2011-12 after its run to the Final Four: 29 wins, a conference tourney title, and an exit in the Round of 32. A good season … but not a magical one.

Here’s the thing: Not every season has to be magical. the mark of a good program is that excellent seasons become routine, and sometimes expected. And I’m guessing that’s what May is really after. Consistent success.

2. The AAC’s new team to beat

Houston spent the last few seasons bullying/beating the AAC into submission. The Cougars won 75 conference games over the last five seasons, 17 more than Memphis, its usual foil.

They’re now off to the Big 12, leaving the Tigers in perfect position to pounce as the new conference kings.

Except for Florida Atlantic.

League coaches voted the Owls as the team to beat, as announced during Monday’s media day. It wasn’t close. FAU grabbed 11 first-place votes to Memphis’ three. The coaches also picked FAU guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin as co-Players of the Year.

It’s almost like Houston never left. I suppose Memphis might be OK with that though — the Tigers did win the 2023 conference tourney title.

Overall, the coaches didn’t have much difference from The Almanac’s AAC prediction.

Coaches are slightly higher on Tulane, East Carolina, SMU, South Florida and Tulsa. (The Almanac is not optimistic about the Golden Hurricane.)

I don’t expect much to go according to predictions, though. There are six new AAC teams: FAU, UAB, North Texas, Charlotte, Rice, and UT-San Antonio. Eight of the 14 coaches are in their first or second years. Both should produce significant variance according to expectations — except at the top.

If FAU and Memphis aren’t the two best AAU teams, well, then we’re in for a wild season.

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3. An even more potent Big 12? Brett Yormack’s trying

The Big 12 added Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF this season. Next year, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah will join the mix, elevating the league to 16 teams — all of which finished 77 or higher in kenpom.com rating’s last season.

It’s turning an already wicked hoops conference into a veritable gauntlet.

And it seems commissioner Brett Yormark still wants more. News emerged that he pushed for Gonzaga’s inclusion into the Big 12 during last week’s league meetings.

Sources told The Messenger that Yormark would like to see Gonzaga join the Big 12 for the 2024-25 season, but that timetable would be a best-case scenario. The Big 12 schools are still digesting the financial ramifications of adding the schools that agreed over the summer to come on board — as well as this year’s additions of Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF. There are many logistical questions that would need to be answered, such as scheduling and how the conference tournament format would be adjusted to account for 17 schools with Gonzaga in the mix.

Despite those logistical issues, Yormark received permission from the Big 12 presidents to continue negotiations. He also has an option of reaching an agreement with Gonzaga that would bring the school on board in 2025.

(daydreams about Gonzaga as part of a big 12 slate)

If the Bulldogs did join, talk would undoubtedly resume about UConn as well. Yormark advocated for the Zags and UConn over the summer, but those talks fizzled. Not only would the Huskies make sense from a hoops standpoint, would allow them to make money from football (they currently play as an independent) and it would bring the Big 12 to 18 teams.

(smiles at the thought of Gonzaga and UConn in a conference with Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, etc)

The geography for this expanded Big 12 isn’t ideal, but the hoops would be a dream. Also, it’s not just for hoopheads. Gonzaga is only behind Duke, Kentucky, UNC and Kansas as a TV draw.

Hand it to Yormark for pursuing a basketball-centric league when everyone else is focused on football.

4. Hoping for big quotes out of the Big Ten

By the time many of you read this, Big Ten media days will be in full swing. Wisconsin coach Greg Gard is up first at 8:30 am CT, followed by Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell and Maryland’s Kevin Willard, all before 9 am.

The full order can be found here. Watch it full coverage on the Big Ten Network and the FOX Sports app, though the cord cutters can watch the press conferences on social media.

ANYWAY, I expect it to be the usual preseason niceties, about how excited everyone is for the season, how hard they worked over the summer, and how optimistic everyone is. If we’re lucky, Matt Painter will come out with some gems.

Still, given the number of players who’ll be in Chicago — all but four teams are bringing three players — there’s a good chance we’ll hear some interesting takes from the players. Some have been known to be quite candid, which is a refreshing approach for an event overflowing with platitudes.

Maybe we’ll get lucky and Zach Edey will wear his new hat. Maybe AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker will continue their bold talk about the nation’s best backcourt. One can hope.

5. ‘Nova adds third commit in nine days

Villanova’s bringing in just one freshman this season, small forward Jordann Dumont out of Tennessee. Perhaps that’s not a huge surprise.

The transition from Jay Wright to Kyle Neptune was always going to be tricky for recruits, and Neptune spent most of his time last summer in the transfer portal, revamping the overall roster.

Or not. Because these images keep popping up on Twitter.

Josiah Moseley is Villanova’s third 2024 commit since Sept. 29, joining center Malcolm Thomas and power forward Matthew Hodge. None of them are one-and-done talents, meaning they’ll spend 2-3 seasons (at least) in Philly, developing with Neptune and his staff.

Sounds a lot like what Wright used to do.

There’s a good chance all three will have chances to play right away, too. The Wildcats will be one of the sport’s oldest teams this season, with seven seniors, five of whom are on year 5. Guess we’ll see how quickly they develop.

In other 2024 recruiting news:

Underrated and unappreciated

It might sound strange to say any Big Ten team is overlooked. The conference gets plenty of attention, and is always on TV. Despite all that, there are still some teams that aren’t being taken seriously enough this season. Terrence Oglesby, John Fanta and Rob Dauster discuss.

Links as you go buy more Powerball tickets.

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