All about the blue bloods

Maybe the Pac-12 should’ve accepted San Diego State after all. Conference realignment almost always excels rapidly or crashes and burns with no in-between — but the outlook doesn’t look great for the Conference of Champions.

Still, nothing is definitive yet. So let's get to the news.

1. Blue Blood vibe check

Yesterday, Mike Miller covered Zvonimir Ivišić’s commitment to Kentucky — the latest installment in the Cats’ resurgent summer. The addition of the Croatian 7-footer sparked overwhelmingly positive reactions across the college hoops landscape, with our own Greg Waddell calling Kentucky “his favorite blue blood for next year” on the Sleepers Media podcast. (You can watch the full segment here.)

It’s a bold statement from Mr. Waddell, considering Kansas and Duke are preseason No. 1 and 2 in some order in most polls. However, it’s one that’s become more and more justifiable.

But his comment got me thinking… How will the blue bloods’ seasons shake out? What are the best and worst-case outcomes? What will lead to their triumph and what could derail them?

By tournament success, last year marked a down season for the four programs. For just the second time since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, a blue blood failed to make the second weekend (2021 was the other). Also of note: There have been 38 tourneys since ‘85; at least one blue blood has made the Final Four in 30 of them. That’s the standard — and all four have reason to hope for bounce-back years.

Duke

What should go right: The Blue Devils retained five of the seven members of their 2022 No. 1 recruiting class, giving them unparalleled continuity in the one-and-done era. You know about Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor. But another vital player is Mark Mitchell, a do-everything, guard-everyone forward scratching the surface of his potential. Duke also brings back veteran guard Jeremy Roach and another stable of 5-star freshmen

What could go wrong: For all of Filipowski’s brilliance, he’s also coming off of double-hip surgery, a tough injury to return from. He’ll need to be at the top of his game for Duke to reach its lofty goals. Additionally, the one piece the Devils lack is a proven big who can play behind him or beside him. Part of what made them excel a season ago was Flip’s defensive versatility paired with a true rim protector in Dereck Lively.

Field of 68 offseason grade: A++

Kansas

What should go right: The Jayhawks landed the most productive transfer in the portal in Hunter Dickinson, who joins a program that knows a thing or two about featuring big men. Additionally, the steady Dajuan Harris returns at the point along with defensive stopper Kevin McCullar on the wing. Also important? Kansas still has the best coach in the country behind the clipboard.

What could go wrong: Shooting, shooting, shooting. Last year, the Jayhawks had just two players who hit above 34% from 3: Harris (on 74 attempts) and Gradey Dick. They welcome shooting specialist Nick Timberlake, but he’s not the same caliber of marksman as Dick. Kansas can mask some of the concerns with its lethal transition game, but the roster may not be the most conducive to spacing in the half-court.

Field of 68 offseason grade: B+

Kentucky

What should go right: The combination of high-upside freshmen and wily veterans usually yields success. On that topic, the importance of Antonio Reeves’ return cannot be overstated. He gives the Cats an “adult in the room” and he averaged nearly 17 ppg over his final 20 games. With him and Tre Mitchell in the fold, Kentucky’s spacing should be its best in years.

What could go wrong: The Cats haven’t posted a top-30 defense, per KenPom, since 2019. (For comparison, their defense ranked top 10 in five of John Calipari’s first ten seasons.) Freshman-heavy teams tend to struggle on that end, and Mitchell, despite his offensive excellence, has never been a strong defender.

Field of 68 offseason grade: D+ (recorded pre-Ivišić commitment)

North Carolina

What should go right: The Heels underwent a massive roster reconstruction following last season’s disappointment. But they retained the two most important players in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. Moreover, Hubert Davis brought in seven new players, highlighted by 5-star freshman Elliot Cadeau. A transcendent passer with a nice 3-point shot, he’ll form a dynamic guard tandem with Davis.

What could go wrong: UNC’s offense should take a giant step forward after ranking just 51st in the country in 2023. However, it lacks length and athleticism on the wing, which could yield a porous defense. Davis and Co. will likely need to ratchet up the aggressiveness to cover the size disadvantage.

Field of 68 offseason grade: A+

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2. Nebraska’s Ahron Ulis allegedly involved in sports gambling scheme

The good vibes Nebraska accrued from Brice Williams’ stellar play on its foreign tour dissipated Wednesday when news broke surrounding point guard Ahron Ulis. The Iowa transfer is facing “a tampering with records charge” due to his alleged role in a sports gambling scheme, per the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

The article reported that Ulis, a part-time starter and key contributor in three seasons with the Hawkeyes, placed around 1,850 wagers under his older brother’s name. Two other Iowa athletes (a former baseball player and a current football player) along with Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers were also implicated.

In recent years, numerous professional athletes and coaches have found themselves embroiled in sports betting controversies, most notably All-Pro NFL wide receiver Calvin Ridley. But this is the biggest scandal to break at the collegiate level since the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports betting in 2018. Debates will continue on what’s an appropriate punishment, along with the morality of a player wagering in favor of his team.

But regardless of what fans and pundits think, Ulis will almost certainly face discipline if the charges are found true. (The Gazette also linked the NCAA’s most recent policies on athletes caught in gambling violations.) It’s a tough blow to the Huskers’ 2023-24 outlook, as they need help in the backcourt. The roster has some intriguing players and Ulis projects as a nice connective piece.

3. Pandemonium in the Potato State

In light of the Pac-12 rumors, let’s close today with some good news for the West Coast.

Admittedly, this nonconference showdown might not be the sexiest in the eyes of the casual fan. It could be a race to 60 in a grind-it-out defensive chess match.

But hear me out. The Broncos have made two straight NCAA Tournaments and are charging onward with the potent duo of Max Rice and Tyson Degenhart. The Gaels, meanwhile, have danced in four of the past six tourneys and finished with their highest KenPom rank in program history a year ago (13th).

Now, Saint Mary’s slows the game down, dominates the glass and takes away the 3-point line — it’s a style that methodically squelches the life out of its opponents. But this year, the Gaels aren’t just a defensive team who wants to win rock fights. They’ll actually feature the main attraction in this matchup (and perhaps the favorite for WCC Player of the Year): Aidan Mahaney.

The 6-3 sophomore shined brightest down the stretch of last season, showcasing the microwave scoring the Gaels have needed the past few seasons. He’ll make every Saint Mary’s game an entertaining watch.

Going Bowling

Todd Simon spent the last 20 years in the West as an assistant or a head coach, including the last seven at Southern Utah. So why the switch to Bowling Green? Was the Michigan native longing to be closer to home? Or was it something else about the MAC program that fostered the move?

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Links as you reluctantly look up watercress recipes:

• The Battle 4 Atlantis bracket was announced.

• Virginia commit Christian Bliss re-classed to 2023 and will join the team this year.

• Australian wing Johnny Furphy (yes, that’s a real name) also re-classed to 2023 and will suit up for Kansas this year.

• Providence and Rhode Island will play every year for at least the next 10 seasons.

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