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We dive into computer rankings for the 2023-24 season, and add in some additional info from the AP poll. Who *should* be No. 1? Plus, Fairfield parts ways with Jay Young and "secret" scrimmage season is underway.
Jose Perez won’t play for West Virginia this season, but he reportedly did find a landing spot at a future Big 12 school. The 6-5 guard is headed to Arizona State, which could use his talents, especially if LSU transfer Adam Miller doesn’t get a waiver to play this season. It’s quite the odyssey for the well-traveled Perez, who last played during the 2021-22 season when he led the MAAC in scoring with Manhattan.
Let's get to the rest of Monday’s news.
1. A different kind of consensus
We highlighted several iterations of rankings over the spring and summer. First, Marquette was the consensus No. 1 team. Then Kansas rose to the top not long after Hunter Dickinson transferred to Lawrence. The Jayhawks remained No. 1 when I compiled an update in early September, but now we’ve got different data to sort.
Namely, what do AP poll voters think? And how does that compare to Kenpom.com, BartTorvik and EvanMiya?
For starters, the computers favor Purdue (they say smart people listen to the data) and that’s a compelling turn of events.
Because it’s not just that the analytical sites like the Boilermakers, it’s that all three favor them. So much for groupthink. I thought the data was supposed to remove bias and provide different POVs?
Or maybe it just says something about Purdue’s floor with the returning National POY, every other starter, and bringing in players who can provide an impact. People likely are skeptical of the Boilermakers winning a national title for two reasons: their recent March finishes (the last three seasons have had exits to double-digit seeds) and the emphasis on a big man, even if that big man is as dominant as it gets.
We’ll see how the Boilermakers fare. My guess is they’ll thrive during the regular-season. Again. And that’s no small thing.
As for other thoughts about these rankings (along with how a consensus Top 25 would look):
Kansas is the consensus No. 2 team, and it’s not even close. There’s a reason the Jayhawks are atop the AP poll and the consensus pick among individual projections: talent, coaching, and balance.
Duke, Houston and UConn round out the top five. It’s interesting to see how much the computers favor the Huskies among Big East teams.
The consensus 6-10: Tennessee, Creighton, Gonzaga, Marquette and Arizona. Kenpom loves the Mark Few coaching tree with the Zags and Wildcats at 5 and 6 in his rankings.
11-15: Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Arkansas and North Carolina. The Longhorns are closer to the Top 10 than the Top 20 IMO.
Kentucky, USC, FAU, Villanova and Miami round out the Top 20. No love for the Owls from Kenpom and EvanMiya, while the computers all dislike Miami. The influence of NCAA Tournament wins.
21-25: Alabama, San Diego State, Auburn Saint Mary’s and Illinois. The Tigers might go down as the team voters shouldn’t have ignored. Talent and an elite coach is usually a winning mix. Also, Saint Mary’s will end the year in the top 10 of all three computer sites. That’s a prediction.
Perhaps most importantly, there’s a ton of information on each team, rankings, rosters, and much more in the Almanac. You’ll notice how similar it is to the AP poll. And it came out weeks ago… (and can still be bought for just $20!)
THE ALMANAC, VOL. 2
Essential info for the season
The best part of The Almanac? It’s got something for everyone.
There are more than 800,000 words in our college basketball preview, which has previews for all 362 teams, the transfers to know, the freshmen to watch, betting insights, and so much more. We’ve even got which coaches are likely to make a jump to a job at a major conference — and which ones are likely to be out.
So order your subscription now. It’s just $20.
2. Info nuggets from the AP poll
The preseason AP Poll is always a bit of an event. We’re still weeks away from games, and it helps build some official excitement for the coming season.
We referenced it above as a comparison point because it’s always a good barometer of how many college hoops writers and analysts (not just a single person) view teams. There will be a handful of teams that fall short of the NCA Tournament, and some that’ll surprise (see: UConn and Purdue last season), but for the most part, these are the contenders this season.
Babe wake up the first AP Poll dropped 👀
What did they get wrong? 🤔
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68)
4:58 PM • Oct 16, 2023
The other cool part about the poll? Nearly every school that’s included sends out a fun factoid related to their inclusion or placement.
Here’s a series of bullet points with some of the notable ones:
It’s the fourth time Kansas has been No. 1 in the preseason poll, all of which have come under Bill Self (amazing it never happened under Roy). Those other seasons — 2005, 2010 and 2019 — all ended with the Jayhawks out before the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. (I hate even typing that.)
In more attempts for a reverse jinx, the preseason No. 1 team hasn’t won the national title since 2009. It’s won six overall — though five unranked teams have won titles.
This is the 16th consecutive year Duke enters a season ranked inside the Top 10 (!).
Gonzaga’s ranked for the 134th consecutive week (!!). Houston has the second-closest streak at 65.
It’s the first time Kentucky hasn’t been ranked inside the Top 15 in the John Calipari era.
It’s the highest preseason ranking for Purdue since 1987-88, but the second time in three years it’s landed in the preseason Top 10.
This is Creighton’s highest-ever preseason ranking.
It’s the highest preseason for Marquette since 1977-78.
Tennessee is in the Top 20 for the fourth-straight year, a school record.
Illinois is in the poll for the fourth-straight season, the longest in program history.
3. Jay Young out at Fairfield
For the second straight season, a MAAC school has parted ways with its coach just weeks before the season. But while Manhattan fired Steve Masiello two weeks before the season because they couldn’t come to a contract agreement, this one’s not as clear.
Fairfield announced Monday that Jay Young resigned. No explanation, just a generic statement:
“We would like to thank Coach Young for his dedication and contributions to Fairfield during his four seasons with the Stags. During his tenure, Coach Young led the Stags to a 50-73 record, which included an appearance in the 2021 MAAC Championship game. We wish Coach Young much success in his future endeavors.”
Assistant coach Chris Casey was named interim head coach. He’s previously been the head coach at Niagara, LIU Post and Rutgers-Newark.
There’s a report about the cause of Young’s departure here, which also notes that assistant Bryan Dougher is no longer listed on the school’s website, and that assistant James Johns also is on leave.
Fairfield opens is season on Nov. 6 at Boston College.
4. The not-so-secret scrimmages
“Secret” scrimmages certainly have evolved over the years. Programs used to keep these under wraps. Then some info might slip out, depending on what a coach wanted the media to know (usually as a form of motivation for the team).
But in the last few years there’s scrimmage info everywhere.
There’s a full list of matchups here, per Trilly Donovan. Many of them are taking place over the next couple weeks (I’d love to watch North Carolina play Florida Atlantic), but early reports of performances did sneak out recently.
Sources: Georgetown beat Wake Forest in a secret scrimmage in DC this afternoon, 81-77. Illinois transfer Jayden Epps scored 46 points to lead the Hoyas to the win. He shot 15/24 from the field and 6/11 from 3 with 4 assists as well.
— John Fanta (@John_Fanta)
6:39 PM • Oct 14, 2023
This might be the best result Georgetown has all season. If Jayden Epps is going to score like that, he’ll never come off the court for Ed Cooley’s Hoyas.
West Virginia cut a highlight reel showing the Mountaineers looking good, even though they lost to Vandy.
So not everything can be believed. Here’s one that’s too good to be true (though I don’t doubt Quincy Olivari could drop 40+ at some point this season).
Per Source: Xavier beat Indiana in a secret scrimmage in Cincy this afternoon, 86-54. Xavier transfer Quincy Olivari scored 42 points to lead the Musketeers to the win. He shot 15/23 from the field and 5/9 from 3.
— ky (@ky_muskie)
5:38 PM • Oct 15, 2023
Looking forward to more and more “scoops” coming out over the next couple weeks.
5. Quiet day in commitments
All the action when it came to 2024 prospects choosing a school happened over the weekend. Because Monday only had a handful of recruits committing to programs.
Suppose that’s good for me. Makes this a little easier to present:
New Mexico picked up forward Jovan Milicevic.
Air Force landed guard Bryce Spiller.
Delaware added forward Macon Emory (he’s 302% committed, which I enjoyed).
Oakland grabbed guard Jack Hoth, and his brother, Chang Hoth.
It all worked out
Zeke Mayo played high school basketball at Lawrence High, right down the road from the Jayhawks. Does it bother the All-Summit League guard that he didn’t get a chance to stay and play for KU? Nah. As he told Rob Dauster and Jeff Goodman, he’s quite happy with South Dakota State.
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Links as you wonder if the Phillies made a deal with the postseason devil.
Here’s the Sun Belt poll. We’ll have more on both league in Wednesday’s Daily.
Saint Louis freshman center Bruce Zhang is out a month due to an injury.
Michigan State will host a its Green and White scrimmage Saturday before the Michigan-Michigan State football game.
A wide-ranging discussion with AAC commissioner Mike Aresco.
And here’s one with WAC commissioner Brian Thornton.
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